工程机械行业跟踪点评：短期内销承压不改长期向上趋势，外销持续增长提升行业盈利能力

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the engineering machinery industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Short-term domestic sales are under pressure, but the long-term upward trend remains unchanged, with continuous growth in exports enhancing industry profitability [1][4] - The domestic market has shown signs of recovery since 2024, with excavator domestic sales experiencing positive growth from March 2024 to April 2025, despite a decline in May 2025 [3][6] - The export growth of excavators has been positive for ten consecutive months, indicating resilience in the export market [3][6] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales - In May 2025, a total of 18,202 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 2.12%. Domestic sales were 8,392 units, down 1.48%, while exports reached 9,810 units, up 5.42% [2] - From January to May 2025, total excavator sales were 101,716 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, with domestic sales at 57,501 units (up 25.7%) and exports at 44,215 units (up 8.2%) [2][10] Loader Sales - In May 2025, a total of 10,535 loaders were sold, a year-on-year increase of 7.24%. Domestic sales were 6,037 units (up 16.7%), while exports were 4,498 units (down 3.31%) [2] - From January to May 2025, total loader sales were 52,755 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, with domestic sales at 29,607 units (up 25.4%) and exports at 23,148 units (up 2.39%) [2][20] Market Conditions - The average working hours for major engineering machinery products in May 2025 were 84.5 hours, down 3.86% year-on-year, and the operating rate was 59.5%, down 5.01% year-on-year [3] - The domestic engineering machinery market is expected to enter a new growth cycle due to the upcoming replacement cycle and government stimulus policies [6][24] Investment Recommendations - Key companies to focus on include XCMG, SANY Heavy Industry, LiuGong, Zoomlion, and Shantui for main engine manufacturers, and Hengli Hydraulic for component manufacturers [4][24] - The report suggests that the engineering machinery industry is poised for growth, driven by domestic demand recovery and export market resilience [4][24]