Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-18 09:44Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overall: The prices of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal are affected by multiple factors, including international market trends, supply - demand relationships, and trade policies. The market shows a complex situation with both upward and downward pressures [2]. - Rapeseed Meal: The market is affected by factors such as the approaching aquaculture peak season, tight old - crop inventories of Canadian rapeseed, and the expected easing of China - Canada trade relations. The market is volatile, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: Supported by factors like the rise in international oil prices and the cost - transfer effect, the price may continue to show a relatively strong trend in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9703 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2688 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract was 735.3 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.1 Canadian dollars, and that of rapeseed was 5236 yuan/ton, up 169 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 130 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 276 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract was 388,838 lots, up 25,904 lots; that of rapeseed meal was 517,117 lots, down 9620 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were 35,115 lots, down 4628 lots; for rapeseed meal were 17,741 lots, down 9174 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 100, up 100; that of rapeseed meal was 25,864, down 43 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9753.75 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 5456.31 yuan/ton, down 25.71 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 167 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was - 88 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. - Substitute Prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8320 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8800 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2950 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 89.56 million tons, up 4.32 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 48.92 million tons, up 24.24 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; that of rapeseed meal was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and Utilization Rate: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 20 million tons, down 5 million tons. The weekly utilization rate of imported rapeseed was 19.09%, down 0.1% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 12.93 million tons, down 1.37 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.55 million tons, down 0.35 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 61 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 37.24 million tons, down 0.94 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region was 7.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 31.5 million tons, up 6.3 million tons [2]. - Pick - up Volume: The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil was 3.54 million tons, up 0.07 million tons; that of rapeseed meal was 3.43 million tons, up 0.14 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2664 million tons, down 113.2 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4167 billion yuan, down 68 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 21.96%, up 0.24%; that of at - the - money put options was 21.95%, up 0.23%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 15.28%, up 0.28%; that of at - the - money put options was 15.26%, up 0.26% [2]. - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 15.87%, down 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 21.4%, unchanged. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14%, up 0.57%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.63%, up 0.18% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Rapeseed Futures: On June 17, ICE rapeseed futures rose slightly. The July contract closed up 1.40 Canadian dollars at 744.50 Canadian dollars/ton, and the most actively traded November contract rose 3.90 Canadian dollars to 739.80 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - Soybean Conditions: As of the week ending June 15, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, the previous week's 68%, and the same period last year's 70% [2]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Market Influences: The decline in the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans and the rise in US soybean oil prices support domestic rapeseed meal prices. However, the increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the improvement in oil mill utilization rates suppress the price. The peak season of aquaculture increases the demand for rapeseed meal, but the expected easing of China - Canada trade relations may increase supply and drag down the price [2]. - Market Performance: Rapeseed meal closed higher in a volatile manner, but the position declined, indicating that long - position holders may be taking profits. Short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3.9 Rapeseed Oil View Summary - Market Influences: The seasonal increase in palm oil production and high inventory pressure its price, but increased exports and the US biofuel policy support the market. The rise in international oil prices and the cost - transfer effect support domestic rapeseed oil prices [2]. - Market Performance: Rapeseed oil continued to rise, and it may maintain a relatively strong trend in the short term [2]. 3.10 Key Points of Attention - Monitor the weekly rapeseed oil mill utilization rate and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions, as well as the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].