Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-18 09:45Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - Internationally, the improved outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries with expected restorative production increases and increased supply from Brazil are suppressing sugar prices. Domestically, the opening of the import window and rising import pressure are weighing on sugar prices. However, approaching the summer consumption peak, the food and beverage industry's inventory demand and the recovery of seasonal consumption such as cold drinks are providing some support, slowing down the price decline. Attention should be paid to arrivals at ports and summer consumption boosts [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5679 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main contract position is 371,817 lots, up 2,505 lots. The sugar warehouse receipt quantity is 28,399 sheets, down 187 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 56,003 lots, down 2,195 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,446 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,468 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,647 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 5,676 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,865 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning it is 6,040 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Liuzhou it is 6,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1,110.72 million tons, up 36.01 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 724.46 million tons, up 124.88 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 386.26 million tons, down 88.95 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 65.22%, up 9.43 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 130,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. Brazil's monthly sugar export volume is 2.2566 billion tons, up 704,000 tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,452 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,430 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan. Outside the quota (50% tariff), the price difference for Brazilian sugar is 251 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; for Thai sugar it is 222 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3.9%, up 0.9 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.82%, down 0.05 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 8.77%, down 0.11 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.57%, up 0.39 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.58%, down 0.37 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - China imported 350,000 tons of sugar in May, a year - on - year increase of 330,000 tons. From January to May, the cumulative sugar import volume was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 50.1% [2]