瑞达期货花生产业日报-20250618

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The peanut market is in a stalemate in terms of trading. The remaining inventory in the production areas is low, and traders are holding prices. The domestic trade demand is sluggish, and oil mills are gradually shutting down and stopping purchases, leading to weaker market transactions. However, the sharp rise in the surrounding oil market has boosted the sentiment in the peanut market, and the willingness of holders to sell at low prices has decreased. The total output of new - season peanuts is expected to remain high, and there is room for an increase in the national output in the 25/26 season. The market is expected to run strongly in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the peanut main contract is 8,254 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan; the trading volume is 43,961 lots, a decrease of 5,115 lots; the open interest is 123,299 lots, a decrease of 4,218 lots; the exchange warehouse receipts are 0 lots; the net position of the top 20 in peanut futures is - 5,334 lots, an increase of 1,515 lots [2] Spot Market - The main circulation price of oil - producing peanuts is 7,566.7 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged; the national average price of peanuts is 9,060 yuan/ton (daily), an increase of 60 yuan; the price of imported Sudan refined rice is 8,350 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged; the price of Henan general - grade peanuts is 9,500 yuan/ton (daily); the price of Shandong general - grade peanuts is 9,200 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The estimated value of China's peanut production is 19 million tons (annual), a decrease of 217,000 tons; the global peanut production forecast is 51.78 million tons (monthly), an increase of 1.08 million tons; the estimated value of China's peanut harvest area is 4.85 million hectares (annual), a decrease of 130,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of sample oil mills is 5.76% (weekly), a decrease of 2.66 percentage points; the imported quantity of peanut kernels is 12,980 tons (monthly), a decrease of 2,210 tons; the peanut inventory of sample oil mills is 139,340 tons (weekly), a decrease of 5,380 tons; the exported quantity of peanut kernels is 17,510 tons (monthly), a decrease of 630 tons; the processing profit of peanut oil in Henan is 79 yuan/ton (weekly), an increase of 40 yuan; the processing profit of peanut oil in Shandong is 95.5 yuan/ton (weekly), an increase of 56.5 yuan; the global peanut ending inventory forecast is 4.22 million tons (monthly), an increase of 280,000 tons; the global peanut crushing volume forecast is 19.28 million tons (monthly), unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The ex - factory price of first - grade peanut oil is 15,000 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged; the imported quantity of peanut oil is 26,945.54 tons (monthly), a decrease of 4,652.08 tons; the price of first - grade fragrant peanut oil is 15,800 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged; the exported quantity of peanut oil is 664.77 tons (monthly), a decrease of 595.66 tons; the price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil in Shandong is 6,550 yuan/ton (daily), a decrease of 80 yuan; the spot price of peanut meal in Rizhao, Shandong is 3,250 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged; the peanut oil - meal ratio is 4.55 (daily), unchanged; the annual forecast value of peanut oil production is 3,491,600 tons (monthly), unchanged; the global peanut oil production forecast is 6.29 million tons (monthly), unchanged; the global domestic consumption forecast of peanut oil is 6.25 million tons (monthly), an increase of 40,000 tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.97% (daily), a decrease of 0.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.59% (daily), a decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.65% (daily), an increase of 0.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.65% (daily), an increase of 0.13 percentage points [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel's survey of major oil mills in the country, in the 23rd week of 2025 (from June 5th to June 12th, 2025), domestic peanut oil sample enterprises started production steadily, with an operating rate of 5.76%. The sharp rise in the oil market has boosted the peanut futures main contract. [2]