Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-18 09:47Report Summary - Report Date: June 18, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Rebar Industry Chain Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of rebar continues to shrink, with a decrease in weekly output and capacity utilization, as well as a decline in electric - arc furnace steel mill operating rates. Rebar factory and social inventories both continue to fall, with a total inventory reduction of 124,000 tons. Downstream demand is based on on - demand procurement, and apparent demand is declining. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on the black commodity sector. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running near the 0 - axis with shrinking red bars. In the short - term, it may maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - RB Main Contract: The closing price is 2,986 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the position is 2,133,943 lots, down 7,054 lots; the net position of the top 20 is 18,699 lots, up 14,380 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread is 8 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt at the SHFE is 37,751 tons, unchanged [2] - Other Spreads: The HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 116 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] 3.2现货市场 - Rebar Prices: The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,130 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it is 3,180 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it is 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Other Indicators: The basis of the RB main contract is 144 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 90 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Raw Material Prices: The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 713 yuan/wet ton, down 3 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei is 2,910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Inventory and Operating Rates: Domestic iron ore port inventory is 139.3314 million tons, up 1.0645 million tons; sample coking plant coke inventory is 871,600 tons, down 10,300 tons; sample steel mill coke inventory is 6.4273 million tons, down 32,200 tons; Tangshan billet inventory is 626,200 tons, down 48,300 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.39%, down 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.56%, down 0.07 percentage points [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Production and Utilization: Sample steel mill rebar production is 2.0757 million tons, down 108,900 tons; sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate is 45.5%, down 2.39 percentage points; independent electric - arc furnace steel mill operating rate is 69.79%, down 3.13 percentage points; domestic crude steel monthly output is 86.55 million tons, up 530,000 tons; China's monthly rebar output is 1.861 million tons, up 131,000 tons [2] - Inventory and Exports: Sample steel mill rebar factory inventory is 1.8289 million tons, down 19,700 tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory is 3.7519 million tons, down 104,300 tons; steel net exports are 1.01 million tons, up 160,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Real Estate and Investment: The national real estate climate index is 93.72, down 0.13; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is 3.7%, down 0.3 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion is - 10.7%, down 0.4 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) is 5.6%, down 0.2 percentage points [2] - Construction Area: The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.2502 billion square meters, down 47.05 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 231.84 million square meters, down 53.48 million square meters; the commercial housing unsold area is 412.64 million square meters, up 4.39 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - The governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, announced eight major financial opening - up measures, including setting up a trading report repository in the inter - bank market, a digital RMB international operation center, a personal credit information agency, etc. [2] - After Israel's sudden attack on Iran, there are disturbing signs in one of the world's largest shipping trade arteries. On Wednesday, the RB2510 contract reduced positions and consolidated. There is an initiative to promote facilitation of personnel exchanges under the China - Central Asia mechanism. [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - Thursday's rebar weekly production, in - plant inventory, and social inventory [2]