Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-18 09:46Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the bean industry dated June 18, 2025, covering futures market, spot price, upstream and downstream situations, and industry news [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The price of domestic soybeans is expected to remain strong in the short - term, showing the characteristic of "high - quality products at high prices". However, the rational procurement of downstream enterprises will limit the increase of soybean prices. Under the expectation of future supply relaxation, the increase of the overall market is limited. Soybean meal spot price is expected to continue the bottom - oscillating trend, and the overall view on soybean oil is bullish [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Positions: The closing price of the main futures contract of soybean No.1 is 4258 yuan/ton (up 11), soybean No.2 is 3728 yuan/ton (up 10), soybean meal is 3062 yuan/ton (down 12), and soybean oil is 8084 yuan/ton (up 112). The net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions for soybean No.1 is - 4752 hands (down 1371), soybean No.2 is - 4930 hands (down 406), soybean meal is - 436940 hands (down 54580), and soybean oil is - 59021 hands (down 1232) [2] - CBOT Futures: The settlement price of the active contract of CBOT soybeans is 1074 cents/bushel (up 4.25), CBOT soybean meal is 285.1 dollars/short - ton (up 1.4), and CBOT soybean oil is 54.79 cents/pound (down 0.32) [2] 3.2 Spot Price - Domestic Soybeans and Oils: The domestic soybean spot price is 3960 yuan/ton (unchanged). The soybean oil prices in Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, and Zhanjiang are 8240 yuan/ton (up 80), 8310 yuan/ton (up 80), and 8300 yuan/ton (up 80) respectively. The soybean meal price in Zhangjiagang is 2950 yuan/ton (up 30) [2] - Import Costs: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans is 3884 yuan/ton (up 15), and that of Brazilian soybeans is 3822 yuan/ton (up 15) [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and Inventory: The US soybean production is 118.12 million tons (down 0.72 million tons), and the ending inventory is 8.03 million tons (down 2.18 million tons). The Brazilian production is 169 million tons (unchanged), and the ending inventory is 32.31 million tons (up 0.79 million tons) [2] - Exports and Shipments: The Brazilian monthly export is 1527.2 million tons (compared with 1420.3 million tons). The weekly export of soybeans is 453353 tons (up 144783 tons) [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory and Production: The port inventory of imported soybeans is 5943320 tons (up 37400 tons), the weekly inventory of soybean meal is 410000 tons (up 27500 tons), and the national port inventory of soybean oil is 780000 tons (up 1500 tons). The weekly oil - mill operating rate is 63.1% (down 0.66%), and the weekly oil - mill crushing volume is 2244600 tons (down 23600 tons) [2] - Price Spreads: The soybean - palm oil price spread is - 490 yuan/ton (up 90), the rapeseed - soybean oil price spread is 1440 yuan/ton (up 50), and the soybean - rapeseed meal price spread is 270.53 yuan/ton (up 39.48) [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Consumption and Sales: The total domestic consumption of soybeans in China is 126.8 million tons (up 5.1 million tons), and the food consumption of soybean oil in China is 18800000 tons (up 900000 tons). The weekly sales volume of oil - mill soybean meal is 1803700 tons (up 1340400 tons), and that of soybean oil is 160250 tons (up 31700 tons) [2] - Profit and Livestock: The crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang is 28.4 yuan/ton (up 46.6), and that of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 77.3 yuan/ton (up 30.9). The price of live pigs in Daxing, Beijing is 14.32 yuan/kg (unchanged), and the expected profit of pig - farming per head is 32.28 yuan (down 47.82) [2] 3.6 Option Market - Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for soybean meal is 16.8% (up 0.33), and that of at - the - money put options is 16.81% (up 0.34). The 20 - day historical volatility of soybean meal is 9.79% (down 0.06), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 14.87% (up 0.1) [2] 3.7 Industry News - In the 24th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, the soybean meal inventory increased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - Soybean No.1: Expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term, but the high price acceptance of downstream enterprises is limited [2] - Soybean No.2: Supported by the biofuel policy, but with limited upside in the context of future supply relaxation, and tends to oscillate [3] - Soybean Meal: With a large amount of soybeans arriving at ports and high oil - mill operating rates, the spot price is expected to continue bottom - oscillating [3] - Soybean Oil: Overall bullish, with the US biofuel blending policy clearly lifting the price center [3]