原油：大幅上涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention a specific industry investment rating [1] Core View of the Report - Recently, the supply and demand of crude oil have improved, combined with a sharp increase in geopolitical risks, leading to a significant rise in prices. However, OPEC+ has sufficient idle capacity, and the long - term production increase of OPEC+ and the trade war will drag down future demand. Geopolitical risks are still high, and crude oil prices are volatile. It is recommended to operate cautiously and lightly buy crude oil call options [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, with continuous production increases. Saudi Arabia hopes to accelerate production increases in the future, but OPEC+ production growth is lower than expected. Supply pressure has been relieved due to factors such as wildfires in Canada, the deadlock in the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiations, and a decline in US oil drilling rig numbers. On the demand side, US economic data is better than expected, and market risk appetite has recovered. However, the pessimistic expectations of the global trade war on the economy have not been fully reversed, and the EIA has raised the forecast of global oil inventory growth in 2025. It is recommended to lightly buy crude oil call options and pay attention to the expansion of conflicts in the Middle East [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2508 rose 6.17% to 552.7 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 530.2 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 556.3 yuan per ton. The open interest increased by 4,936 to 38,030 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - OPEC maintains the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.28 million barrels per day. EIA lowers the US crude oil production forecast in 2026 by 120,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day, and raises the global oil inventory growth forecast in 2025. IEA lowers the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 and 2026 by 20,000 barrels per day respectively. US EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, but the refined oil inventory increased more than expected, resulting in an overall increase in oil inventories [3] Supply - side - OPEC's April crude oil production increased by 128,000 barrels per day to 26.838 million barrels per day, and its May 2025 production increased by 184,000 barrels per day to 27.022 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia. US crude oil production increased by 20,000 barrels per day to 13.428 million barrels per day in the week of June 6. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased, and the weekly demand for gasoline and diesel increased, driving a 1.20% increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4]