大秩序竞合录系列1：军工战略资产崛起

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The significant increase in gold prices reflects market expectations of a global order restructuring, driven by central bank gold purchases, rising geopolitical risks, and potential pressures on the dollar system [3][7] - Global defense spending continues to rise amid escalating geopolitical conflicts, with China's defense expenditure projected to reach 1.7% of GDP by 2024, indicating substantial growth potential compared to major military powers like Russia (7.1%) and the US (3.4%) [3][10][15] - China's military trade is rapidly growing, with weapon exports reaching a historical high in 2023, accounting for 10.0% of global exports [3][20] - The military industry is experiencing capacity expansion as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its conclusion, with significant catalysts expected from the "15th Five-Year Plan" and related commemorative activities [3][27] - The defense industry has shown notable activity due to recent conflicts, with a cumulative return of 5.9% since May 25, outperforming the broader market by 4.0% [3][4] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Context - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a complex scenario involving central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and pressures on the dollar system, indicating a strong expectation of global financial and political order restructuring [7] Global Defense Spending - Global defense spending is projected to reach $2.7 trillion by 2024, marking a 9.4% year-on-year increase, with regional spending becoming more balanced as Asia's share rises from 10.1% in 1992 to 22.3% in 2024 [10][15] China's Defense Expenditure - China's defense budget for 2025 is set at 1.81 trillion yuan, a 7.2% increase from the previous year, with a significant gap compared to other major military nations, suggesting room for growth [15][19] Military Trade Growth - China's military exports are shifting towards high-tech, high-value products, with a notable increase in international interest, as evidenced by the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow attracting significant attention [20][25] Industry Capacity and Planning - The military industry is expected to continue expanding capacity, with ongoing projects reaching 32.38 billion yuan as of Q1 2025, driven by the goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" initiatives [27][28] Market Activity and Valuation - The defense industry is currently experiencing high trading activity, with a trading heat index at the 76.2 percentile of the past decade, and a PE_TTM of 76.1, placing it at the 71.4 percentile historically [29][32] - The forecast for net profit growth in 2025 is projected at 119.6%, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [36] Fund Holdings - As of Q1 2025, active equity funds have a 3.2% market value allocation in the defense industry, reflecting a moderate level of investment interest [39] Recommended Stocks - The report includes a stock pool recommendation focusing on companies within the defense industry, highlighting those with high PE ratios and significant projected profit growth [42]