锡行业周报：中美经贸磋商成功举行，现货仍较为紧张-20250618

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5][16]. Core Insights - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, focusing on future tariff developments. Supply issues from Myanmar persist, leading to continued tightness in the ore market, with tin prices expected to remain strong and volatile [2][3][16]. - The global supply of tin ore faces stability and sustainability challenges, while domestic consumption stimulus policies are expected to drive growth in tin demand. The development of artificial intelligence and new energy vehicles also presents growth potential for global demand [3][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - This week, refined tin prices saw a slight increase, with raw material prices also rising. Social inventory increased slightly, while exchange inventory decreased. The closing prices for LME tin (3-month) and SHFE tin (active) were $32,694/ton and ¥263,690/ton, respectively, reflecting increases of 1.09% and 0.03% from last week. The spot tin price (Changjiang Nonferrous) was ¥265,700/ton, up 0.49% from last week [1][18][19]. 2. Industry Situation - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism took place in London, with a focus on tariff negotiations. Supply from Myanmar remains problematic, with a continued tightness in the ore market. The operating rate of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi has dropped to a low level of 47.05% [2][16]. The import volume of tin ore from the Wa region in Myanmar is expected to decline due to stagnant recovery progress and seasonal transport issues [2][16]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating, highlighting the challenges in global tin ore supply stability and sustainability. The domestic demand is expected to grow due to ongoing consumption stimulus policies, while global demand is also projected to increase due to advancements in artificial intelligence and new energy vehicles. Recommended stocks include Xiyang Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xingye Silver Tin [3][16]. 4. Weekly Performance of Tin Stocks - As of June 13, 2025, the closing prices for Xiyang Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xingye Silver Tin were down 1.59%, 0.20%, and 0.43%, respectively, compared to the previous week [17].