冠通每日交易策略-20250618

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views - Crude Oil: Recent supply and demand conditions for crude oil have improved, and geopolitical risks have sharply increased, leading to a significant price increase. However, OPEC+ has sufficient idle capacity, and future production increases by OPEC+ along with the drag from the trade war on later demand, combined with high geopolitical risks, result in high volatility. It is recommended to operate cautiously and lightly buy crude oil call options [3][4]. - Coking Coal: Coking coal opened lower and closed higher today, with intraday pressure. The fundamentals remain loose, and the upward momentum of the market is limited. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 800 yuan/ton [5]. - Copper: The fundamentals of copper have not changed significantly, maintaining the logic of a tight supply outlook and weakening marginal demand. Currently, copper prices fluctuate within a range, and the market is waiting for new guidance [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate industry chain still has a relatively loose fundamental pattern, with price games between upstream and downstream, low trading enthusiasm, and a bearish market sentiment [10][11]. - Urea: The supply of urea remains loose, and the demand provides only a phased rebound. The future direction of futures prices will affect market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and domestic export policies [12]. - Asphalt: Asphalt has been following the upward trend of crude oil recently, but due to the high volatility of crude oil, cautious operation is recommended. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is advisable to go long on the 09 - 12 spread of asphalt [13][14]. - PP: Although the inventory pressure of PP is still high, considering that China and the US have agreed to implement the results of the economic and trade talks and the significant increase in crude oil prices, it is expected that PP will rebound [15]. - Plastic: The inventory pressure of plastic is large, but with the improvement of market sentiment, it is expected to rebound in the near future [16][17]. - PVC: Before the demand for PVC is substantially improved, the pressure is high. However, due to the improvement of market sentiment, it is expected to have a slight rebound in the near future [18]. - Rebar: Although the supply of rebar has decreased, the weak demand makes it difficult to quickly digest the inventory, limiting the upward space of prices. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term [19][20]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: It is expected that the hot - rolled coil main contract will continue to show a narrow - range oscillating trend in the near future. Attention should be paid to factors such as demand recovery, inventory changes, and macro - economic policy adjustments [21][23]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. However, OPEC+ production growth has fallen short of expectations, and factors such as wildfires in Canada and the deadlock in the US - Iran nuclear deal negotiations have alleviated supply pressure [3]. - Demand: US non - farm and CPI data are better than expected, and the market risk appetite has recovered. The US has entered the traditional travel season, and crude oil inventories are decreasing. However, the current performance of refined oil demand and inventory data is poor [3]. Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of coal washing plants has increased this period, but coal plants are still affected by environmental protection factors and have a reduction expectation. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal remains normal, but the inventory of coking coal is at a high level, and the supply pressure persists [5]. - Demand: The profit per ton of independent coking enterprises has declined significantly. After three rounds of price cuts for coke, there is still an expectation of further price cuts. The steel end remains weak, and the demand from steel mills is expected to decline [5]. Copper - Supply: The port inventory of refined copper ore has increased this period, and there is a risk of production reduction for smelters. However, copper production is still at a high level [9]. - Demand: Downstream purchasing willingness is insufficient, the operating rate has slowed down, and the demand from the home appliance and real estate industries is weak [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: The supply is sufficient, the utilization rate of production capacity is at a high level, and the total inventory has reached a high level [10]. - Demand: The terminal market has declined month - on - month, and battery enterprises mainly maintain rigid procurement [10][11]. Urea - Supply: The supply remains loose, the daily production changes little, and there are no devices with long - term shutdown plans [12]. - Demand: Agricultural demand is expected to last until the end of June, with limited quantity, continuity, and intensity. The raw material price of compound fertilizer plants has risen, but the terminal sales are sluggish [12]. Asphalt - Supply: The operating rate of asphalt has rebounded, and the expected production of refineries in June has increased [13]. - Demand: The operating rates of most downstream industries have declined, and the national shipment volume has decreased [13]. PP - Supply: Some overhaul devices have restarted, and new devices have been put into production, resulting in increased supply and high inventory [15]. - Demand: The downstream recovery is slow, and new orders are limited [15]. Plastic - Supply: Some overhaul devices have restarted, and new production capacity has been put into operation, with high inventory [16][17]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has declined, and new orders are limited [16][17]. PVC - Supply: The operating rate is high, and the supply pressure is large [18]. - Demand: The demand has not been substantially improved, and the real estate market is still in the process of improvement [18]. Rebar - Supply: Blast furnaces have reduced production for five consecutive weeks, and the operating rate of electric furnaces has continued to decline, resulting in a contraction of supply [19][20]. - Demand: Terminal demand has weakened significantly, and the inventory pressure is large [20]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply: The production is relatively stable, and there is no significant change in supply [21]. - Demand: The demand from the real estate, automobile, and manufacturing industries is weak, and the inventory has increased [21][23]. Market Performance - As of the close on June 18, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Crude oil rose by more than 6%, and many varieties such as p - xylene and PTA rose by more than 3%. In terms of decline, polysilicon fell by nearly 2%, and Shanghai lead fell by nearly 1%. In the stock index futures market, most contracts rose slightly, and in the bond futures market, there were both rises and falls [7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:03, funds flowed into varieties such as Shanghai silver 2508 and crude oil 2508, while funds flowed out of contracts such as CSI 1000 2506 and CSI 300 2506 [7][8].