2025下半年贵金属期货行情展望：黄金下半场：新区间的攻守之道

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "The Second Half of Gold: Strategies for Offense and Defense in the New Range - Outlook for the Precious Metals Futures Market in the Second Half of 2025" [1] - Core View: Gold is less likely to replicate the first - half performance and reach new highs in the second half of 2025. The focus shifts from "credit" to "growth and liquidity". Gold is in a range - bound oscillation between $3150 - $3500. There is a good upward environment in Q3, but it lacks conditions for a continuous one - way market, with limited upside space [2][3] Group 2: 2025 H1 Gold Market Review - Market Start: In early 2025, the gold market began with political power - transfer games. Trump's victory triggered policy changes, pushing up risk - aversion sentiment and the price above $2800 [6] - Economic Changes: In Feb - Mar, the US economic cracks emerged. Manufacturing PMI employment and new orders declined, forming a "mini - stagflation" pattern. The negative correlation between gold and US stocks reached a 15 - year high [6] - Market Structure Changes: In Feb, tariff expectations led to a large - scale transfer of London gold inventory to New York. In March, a Taiwan Strait incident was a turning point, pushing the price above $3000. In April, tariff games drove the price to a peak of $3509, followed by a sharp reversal [7] - Performance: By June 13, COMEX gold had a 29% annual increase, and COMEX silver had a 24.1% increase [7][8] Group 3: Long - Term Gold Valuation 3.1 Historical Performance - Six Main Uptrends: Since 1970, gold has had six main uptrends, with an average arithmetic increase of 323% and an average duration of 48 months. The current uptrend has a 110.6% increase and a monthly increase of 4.6%, lower than historical levels [12][18] - Inflation - Adjusted Analysis: After inflation adjustment, the average increase of the previous five stages was 206.1%, and the current increase is 79.7%. Statistically, the current uptrend may be more than half - way, and the potential end - price is between $5293 - $5838 [19] 3.2 Long - Term Driving Factors - Global Reserve Adjustment: Central banks are adjusting their official reserves, reducing the proportion of US dollars and increasing gold. China's gold reserve ratio has risen to 6.73%, and many countries, including Japan, have reduced their US debt holdings [29] - RMB Internationalization: RMB internationalization is progressing slowly but steadily. In 2025, RMB ranked fourth in global international payments, with a 3.5% share. China's cross - border RMB trade settlement has tripled since 2019. The establishment of overseas gold delivery warehouses will increase global gold demand [39][40] - US Debt Risk: The US un - paid public debt is $36.2 trillion, accounting for 128% of GDP. Although the debt growth rate has slowed recently, long - term debt problems may drive up the gold price. The current gold - to - debt ratio is 37.34, lower than the average of 55 [45][46] 3.3 Potential Buyers - Hedge Fund Allocation: Overseas hedge funds' average gold allocation is 2.53%, and only two have a low - ratio gold ETF allocation. There is still room for further allocation [53] - Regional Differences: Asian trading sessions contribute nearly 25% to the gold price increase since June 2024, indicating a shift in gold pricing power to Asia. Asian buyers focus more on gold's political attributes [67] - Central Bank Purchases: Central banks, especially those in developing countries, are increasing gold reserves. African central banks are starting gold reserve strategies, and China has significant room for further gold purchases [74][75] Group 4: H2 Core Narrative 4.1 Risk Preference and Interest Rate - Risk Preference: Policy uncertainties have decreased, and market risk preference in H2 will be better than in H1, limiting gold's upside [80] - Interest Rate: The Fed may start an interest - rate cut in Q3, with the first cut in September. Employment data shows short - term resilience but uneven growth, and inflation is expected to remain stable in Q3 and reach 3.2% - 3.5% in Q4 [89][96] 4.2 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal Bill: The OBBBA is expected to increase a net deficit of about $2.225 trillion in 2025 - 2034. It is more moderate than previous forecasts, reducing market concerns about the fiscal burden [117][119] - Impact: The US government is unlikely to give up tariff revenue easily. Fiscal expansion will stimulate the economy and restart the credit cycle, but it may also limit gold's performance as the yield curve may steepen [119][120] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Q3 Strategy: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, especially paying attention to buying opportunities when the short - term interest rate jumps after the debt ceiling is passed. If the price breaks through $3500, consider a trend - following strategy [3] - Q4 Strategy: If the price fails to break through $3500, consider short - selling at high levels. The first support level is $3150, and the second is $2980 [3]