黑色产业数据每日监测-20250618

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, supply has tightened and demand has continued to slow, forming a pattern of weak supply and demand. In late June, the logic of inventory accumulation of building materials in the off - season may still be traded, and ore prices will mainly operate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On June 18, black - series commodity futures generally stabilized. The closing price of rebar was 2986 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; the closing price of hot - rolled coil was 3102 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; the closing price of iron ore was 695.5 yuan/ton; coke in the coking coal and coke pair closed slightly higher [1]. Market Analysis - Supply Side: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 4.49% (157.7 million tons) to 33.527 billion tons this period, but it was still at the highest level in the same period in recent years, with a year - on - year increase of 10.59%. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China decreased by 1.564 million tons to 25.175 billion tons, within the normal fluctuation range. Considering the expectation of the end - of - quarter rush of mines at the end of June and the subsequent impact on domestic arrival volume, iron ore supply is becoming more abundant [1]. - Demand Side: Terminal demand has gradually weakened after entering the off - season. The total demand for the five major steel products decreased by 195,300 tons to 8.8217 billion tons, reaching a one - month low and the lowest level in the same period over the years. It is expected that there is still room for the decline of molten iron production. However, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased slightly to 58.44% last week, and the reduction of production was not active. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills increased by 0.15% to 83.41%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.07% to 90.58%, and the daily average molten iron production was 2.4161 million tons, only 1,900 tons less than last week and 23,000 tons more than the same period last year. In the short term, the speed and amplitude of production reduction are relatively limited, and there is still support for iron ore demand. - Inventory: The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 249,900 tons to 144.0234 billion tons compared with last Monday. However, the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased by 1.085 million tons to 87.9868 billion tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio rose to 29.9 days, indicating that the previous tight supply - demand pattern of iron ore is gradually easing [1]. Investment Suggestions - Iron Ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile view in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation view in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1].