油脂：进口成本抬升，油脂全线收涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Internationally, Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach a record high, but the tense sentiment in the international energy market and the uncertainty of weather in US soybean - growing areas support soybean prices, leading to a mild increase in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil production declined from June 1 - 15, 2025, while exports improved, reducing the inventory build - up pressure. Driven by the strength of peripheral oils and crude oil prices, Malaysian palm oil futures showed an oscillatingly strong trend [6]. - Domestically, a large number of imported soybeans have arrived at ports, oil mills are operating at a high level, and soybean oil output is relatively abundant. As the consumption of oils enters the off - season, soybean oil will continue to accumulate inventory, but the increase in import costs will strongly support soybean oil prices. The palm oil inventory has rebounded from a low level, with little change in the domestic fundamentals, and its price will continue to follow the external market. The oversupply situation of domestic rapeseed oil persists. The slow progress of China - Canada negotiations and the recent strong rise of ICE rapeseed futures support rapeseed oil prices from the cost side [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) stated on Tuesday that the soybean export volume from Brazil in June 2025 is 14.37 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 14.08 million tons. ANEC expects that the Brazilian soybean export volume in 2025 may reach up to 110 million tons, which, if achieved, will be about 13 million tons more than in 2024 [3]. - The US Department of Agriculture's June global production report shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 19.4 million tons, 4% higher than last month's expected value but 2% lower than in the 2023/24 season [3]. - In the first five months of 2025, the total export volume of Russian vegetable oils is estimated to be 2.72 million tons, a 19% decrease compared to the same period last year. The rapeseed oil export volume during the same period increased to 624,000 tons, a 26% year - on - year increase. More than 88% of it was shipped to China [3]. Futures and Spot Data - On June 18, DCE soybean oil futures closed at 8,084 yuan/ton, up 1.40%; DCE palm oil futures closed at 8,518 yuan/ton, up 0.85%; CZCE rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,703 yuan/ton, up 1.25%. On June 17, CBOT soybean futures closed at 1,074 cents/bushel, up 0.37%; CBOT soybean oil futures closed at 54.69 cents/pound, down 0.76%; MDE palm oil futures closed at 4,064 ringgit/ton, down 0.97% [2]. - On June 18, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,310 yuan/ton, up 0.97%; the spot price of palm oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,840 yuan/ton, up 0.34%; the spot price of rapeseed oil in Nantong was 9,910 yuan/ton, up 1.33% [2]. - On June 18, the soybean oil basis was 226 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the palm oil basis was 322 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; the rapeseed oil basis was 207 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The registered contracts of DCE soybean oil were 17,552, unchanged; those of DCE palm oil were 540, unchanged; those of CZCE rapeseed oil were 100, an increase of 100 [2]. - On June 18, the crushing profit of imported soybeans was 77.30 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.90 yuan; that of imported rapeseed was - 11.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of imported palm oil was 32.72 yuan/ton, an increase of 70.78 yuan [2].