国投期货农产品日报-20250618

Report Core View - The overall situation of agricultural products presents complex trends, with different varieties affected by factors such as weather, policies, and geopolitical situations. There are differences in price trends and investment outlooks among various agricultural products [2][3][4] Summary by Variety Soybean - Domestic soybeans continued to rise today, but the domestic soybean bidding procurement failed. In terms of price difference, domestic soybeans are weaker than imported soybeans. Imported soybeans will be driven by weather in the medium - term, and the long - term US biodiesel policy is bullish, making CBOT soybeans price resistant. In the short term, the weather in Northeast China is conducive to soybean growth [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict has led to a rise in crude oil and strong performance of US soybeans. Dalian soybean meal closed flat. The continuous strong rise of domestic soybean oil may suppress the increase of soybean meal. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 66%, slightly lower than expected. Future US weather is favorable for soybean growth. There are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade. Pay attention to the fluctuations in the oil sector and the potential price increase driven by bad weather from June to August [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - As the price of oil rises, the soybean crushing profit on the futures market improves, and the market shows a situation of strong oil and weak meal. The spot basis weakens as the futures oil price rises. Driven by the US biodiesel policy, the long - term upward elasticity of oil is large, and the price of CBOT soybeans is resistant [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The prices of rapeseed products continued to rise slightly. The positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased, and the spread between September and January of rapeseed meal narrowed. The impact of factors such as foreign biodiesel and geopolitics has not been fully digested. There is a risk of dry weather in North American oilseed growing areas, and the oilseed futures price includes a weather premium. The price difference between domestic rapeseed oil and other oils is relatively high, and terminal consumption is not strong. The price increase of rapeseed oil mainly comes from the uncertainty of future imports. In general, the price of rapeseed products has room to rise in the medium - term but may face price pressure from the demand side in the short - term [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures rose and then fell. The bullish sentiment affected by wheat policy has weakened. The price difference between new wheat and corn is about 30 yuan/ton, and some feed enterprises are substituting. Corn traders expect future price increases. The supply in Shandong is at a low level and slightly increased today. The inventory in north and south ports is decreasing, and the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is declining. The potential reduction of 1 million sows in China may affect feed consumption, and corn futures may continue to fluctuate [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures rebounded slightly with narrow market fluctuations, and the spot price remained stable. The government plans to reduce the number of sows by about 1 million to 3.95 million. Policy aims to stabilize pig prices, but the industry still faces large pressure of pig出栏 in the later period [8] Eggs - The near - month egg futures rebounded significantly, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase in some areas. The bottom - fishing sentiment was released as egg prices entered a low - level range, and the upcoming Mid - Autumn Festival demand and 618 promotion supported the price. However, due to the release of production capacity and the normal old - hen culling rate, the price increase is considered a rebound rather than a reversal [9]