兼论后续出口走势展望：如何高频跟踪出口形势变化

Export Changes - Since Trump's administration, China's export structure has adjusted, with a decrease in the share of exports to the U.S. and an increase to ASEAN and Africa, while exports to the EU have rebounded after two years of decline[11] - In the first five months of 2025, China's exports to the U.S. accounted for approximately 11.9%, down 2.7 percentage points from 2024, while exports to ASEAN, Africa, and the EU increased to 17.8%, 5.6%, and 14.7% respectively[11] - By the end of 2024, China's export share of global exports was about 15.0%, rising to approximately 15.4% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in global market share[11] High-Frequency Tracking - Monitoring port cargo throughput can effectively reflect changes in China's export volume, showing a correlation with historical export trends[21] - South Korea's export growth is a key indicator of global demand, with a 5.4% increase recorded in early June 2025, suggesting a potential recovery in global demand[43] - Tracking the number of container ships from China to the U.S. provides insights into direct export trends, with a notable recovery in June but still weaker than March levels[43] Future Export Outlook - In an optimistic scenario, if the fentanyl tariffs are lifted and the exemption for reciprocal tariffs continues until the end of the year, the annual export growth rate could reach approximately 3.4%[57] - Conversely, under a baseline scenario, the annual export growth rate is expected to be around 2.1%, with risks of a decline in Q4 due to high base effects[57] - The end of the 90-day exemption period for tariffs on July 9, 2025, poses uncertainties for future export demand, as the U.S. may maintain its current tariff framework[54]