行情余温反复，短期预计阴跌为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index market declined due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, which increased global risk - aversion sentiment. European and American stock indices mostly fell, and A - share sentiment cooled down. This week, the stock index is still at a relatively over - valued position within the oscillation range and is expected to continue to bottom out. The impact of short - term foreign capital sentiment fluctuations on A - shares is limited, and there are no clear domestic trading events in the short term. The market will continue the decline trend under the characteristics of shrinking volume and low volatility, and it is recommended that investors mainly wait and see. The next breakthrough window may appear in early July, with attention paid to the new round of tariff disturbances caused by the expiration of Trump's 90 - day exemption policy and possible hedging policies from the domestic Politburo meeting. In the medium - to - long - term, the current discounts of IC and IM have reached the highest level in the past two years. The annualized discount rate of the current - quarter IC contract is 11 - 12%, and that of the IM contract is 15 - 16%. These two types of contracts can bring more substantial excess returns in the allocation level compared to index products such as ETFs, and it is still valuable and potential for long - term index investment investors to hold long positions [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18th to 19th, with the theme of "Financial Opening - up, Cooperation and High - quality Development in the Changing Global Economic Landscape". Central financial management department leaders will give speeches and release major financial policies. US President Trump's pressure on Iran makes the market speculate that the US may directly participate in Israel's attack on Iran [5] 3.2 Stock Index Disk Review - Disk Tracking: In the previous trading day, A - shares fluctuated narrowly. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.04%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.09%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.29%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.10%. The shipping (+2.44%) and energy equipment (+2.01%) sectors led the gains, while the office supplies (-3.45%) and soft drink (-2.80%) sectors lagged. More than 2,200 stocks rose, and 61 stocks hit the daily limit, with a poor profit - making effect [5] - Technical Tracking: After the previous oversold rebound, the stock indices generally approached the upper edge of the gap, with stronger pressure at the daily and weekly levels, and the monthly - line trend is still oscillating [5] - Fund Flow: Recently, the trading volume of A - shares has been hovering at a low level, staying at the 1.2 - trillion - yuan level yesterday. The short - term market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient upward momentum [5] 3.3 Core Logic Summary - The decline in the stock index market last week was due to geopolitical conflicts. This week, the stock index is over - valued and may continue to decline. The impact of foreign capital is limited, and there are no clear trading events. The market will decline with shrinking volume and low volatility. The next breakthrough may be in early July. In the long - term, IC and IM contracts have high allocation value [3] 3.4 Operation Suggestions - Futures Operation: In the short term, it is recommended to mainly wait and see, with the lower support level seen at the position on April 9th. For monthly operations, maintain the idea of band trading [4] - Option Operation: The implied volatility of stock index options continues to flatten, with the weekly IV of the current - month at - the - money CSI 300 option remaining at 12 - 13%. Given the low - level oscillation of volatility, the cost of buying options during the waiting - for - breakthrough stage is expected to be high, and the premium recovered from selling options is limited. It is recommended to wait for the second wave of rising volatility before engaging in double - selling operations [4]