煤焦日报：多空僵持，煤焦窄幅震荡-20250618

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Coke: On June 18, the main coke contract closed at 1,375 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.62%. The position of the main contract was 51,886 lots, a net increase of 743 lots from the previous trading day. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts was about 1,401 yuan/ton. Coke maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline, affected by the off - season. However, the recent marginal decline in coking coal production, combined with events such as the Israel - Iran conflict and political turmoil in Mongolia, has strengthened the cost support for coke futures, driving the price to stop falling and stabilize. In general, the fundamentals of coke have not changed much. The off - season still suppresses the decline of both supply and demand, but the cost - side support from coking coal has increased marginally, driving the coke price to stop falling and rebound slightly. Continued attention should be paid to the raw material situation [5][32]. - Coking Coal: On June 18, the main coking coal contract closed at 790.5 points, down 0.57% intraday. The position of the main contract was 549,735 lots, a net decrease of 13,032 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 865 yuan/ton, down 2.8% week - on - week, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts was about 834 yuan/ton. The change in the coking coal market sentiment mainly stems from supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations brought by international themes such as geopolitics and Sino - US relations. The short - and medium - term adjustment of coking coal, which has been hitting new lows this year, is reasonable. However, it will still take some time to completely reverse the current situation of loose supply. Without policy intervention, the supply pressure of coking coal may return after July. The marginal positive effect of the first meeting of the Sino - US London Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism on the terminal demand for ferrous metals is limited, and the more critical factor may be whether the Israel - Iran conflict will trigger a new round of international energy price increases. In general, the coking coal futures have stopped falling and stabilized and gradually moved up, but the sustainability of coking coal production cuts and the impact of geopolitics on coal prices need further evaluation. It is recommended to view it as a phased rebound, but be vigilant against the falsification of the upward logic [6][33]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - Automobile Trade: In May 2025, China exported 690,000 automobiles, a year - on - year increase of 22.2%; from January to May, the cumulative export was 2.85 million, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In May, China imported 50,000 automobiles, a year - on - year decrease of 25.5%; from January to May, the cumulative import was 180,000, a year - on - year decrease of 32.8% [8]. - Coking Coal Market: On June 18, the price of coking coal in Linfen Yaodu District remained stable. The ex - factory price of high - sulfur strong coking coal (A10.5, S4.1, V31, G100, Y40, CSR75, Mt10) was 780 yuan/ton, cash - inclusive of tax [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1,270 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 5.22% | - 24.85% | - 36.18% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1,170 yuan/ton | - 0.85% | - 4.10% | - 27.78% | - 40.00% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 865 yuan/ton | - 2.81% | - 5.98% | - 26.69% | - 45.94% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,210 yuan/ton | 0.83% | - 4.72% | - 18.79% | - 43.46% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,250 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.10% | - 18.30% | - 39.02% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,375.0 yuan/ton | + 0.62% | 1,390.0 yuan/ton | 1,361.5 yuan/ton | 26,667 lots | + 5,677 lots | 51,886 lots | + 743 lots | | Coking Coal | - | 790.5 points | - 0.57% | 801.0 points | 782.0 points | 834,209 lots | - 185,328 lots | 549,735 lots | - 13,032 lots | [13] Related Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts show the inventory data of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025 [14][15][17]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts show the inventory data of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025 [20][23][25]. - Other Charts: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production situation, coal washing plant production situation, and coking plant operation situation [27][29][31]. Market Outlook The outlook for coke and coking coal is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the current market situation, influencing factors, and the need to continue monitoring relevant factors [32][33].