宝城期货纯碱估值探究

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The valuation of soda ash is related to basis, price structure changes, fuel prices, production costs/profits, related products, by - products of production processes, and prices of upstream and downstream products. The report explores soda ash valuation from these aspects [4][39]. - The basis of soda ash mostly depends on the premium of futures prices, but at the beginning of a large - scale rising market, the spot has better initiative. In the middle and late stages of the market and during the decline, the futures' initiative is more obvious. When the basis is relatively stable, market contradictions are clear and not intense, which is the current situation [4][39]. - The price structure of soda ash is very sensitive to supply - demand relationships (or inventory). Currently, it is flattening from a steep contango structure, which is due to bearish sentiment in the far - month contracts, indicating weakness [4][39]. - The transmission of fuel prices to soda ash prices requires significant price fluctuations, such as in 2021. Currently, fuel price fluctuations are small, so the impact on soda ash prices is limited [4][39]. - From the cost/profit perspective, soda ash is currently in a low - profit state, and there have been losses in the past six months, but it has not significantly affected cash - flow costs, and enterprise开工 has not changed much. In this state of low profit and high production, it is difficult to see a reversal in soda ash [4][39]. - From the prices of light and heavy soda ash, ammonium chloride, and glass, the price of soda ash is at a relatively low level in history. Whether it will turn around in the future depends on supply - demand [4][39]. - Valuation ultimately affects supply - demand. Only when there is a transmission from valuation to production and then to inventory can the significance of valuation be reflected. If soda ash maintains high production under low prices and low profits, the valuation has not reached the point of "quantitative change leading to qualitative change" [5][40] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1 Valuation 1.1 Definition - The valuation of commodities is the process of assessing their intrinsic value in a specific market environment and economic conditions. It is a complex evaluation system based on current information and future expectations. For stocks, different types of price - earnings ratios are used for valuation, and for commodities, valuation is more "practical" as high or low valuations will be corrected by the market through trade, etc. [10] 1.2 Soda Ash Valuation - The valuation of soda ash is related to basis, price structure changes, production costs, production profits, substitutes, complements, by - products of production processes, and prices of upstream and downstream products. The report focuses on basis, price structure, raw material prices of different processes, production costs and profits, price differences between heavy and light soda ash, ammonium chloride prices, and glass prices [11] 2 Soda Ash Valuation Analysis 2.1 Basis - The basis of soda ash has high elasticity, which is related to the increasing concentration of the soda ash industry. During large price fluctuations, the spot price is rigid, and the basis expands. In the rising process, the spot follows the price increase actively, and at the beginning of the rise, the spot is stronger than the futures. In the decline, the spot is more resistant to price drops, and the futures decline more than the spot. With more spot - futures traders in the industry, the basis fluctuation is expected to converge. When the basis fluctuates within a narrow range, the fundamentals of soda ash are more transparent [12][13] 2.2 Price Structure - The price structure of soda ash is very sensitive to supply - demand and inventory changes. In the past year and a half, it has changed from a backwardation structure to a contango structure. Recently, the monthly spread has been in a positive - carry situation, with the near - month contracts showing some resistance to price drops, and the market's bearish sentiment mainly reflected in the far - month contracts [17][20] 2.3 Raw Material Prices - Soda ash has three production processes: the combined soda process, the ammonia - soda process, and the natural - soda process. In the ammonia - soda and combined soda processes, raw material and fuel costs account for a relatively high proportion. The price of soda ash is highly correlated with raw salt and fuel prices, but it is more sensitive to fuel price fluctuations. Only in extreme market conditions will soda ash prices react synchronously to raw material or fuel price changes [23] 2.4 Cost and Profit - The total cost of soda ash provides a "floor" for the price. Enterprises may adjust production according to cost/profit, but it is not always the case. Using profit to estimate the price of soda ash is more effective, and the combination of "profit + production" is more meaningful for price judgment [24] 2.5 Related Products - Light and heavy soda ash, as two physical forms of soda ash, have a high degree of price linkage and a reasonable price difference. The price difference is mainly due to processing and logistics costs. Price transmission is a two - way dynamic balance, and in special cases, the price difference may break through the reasonable range [27] 2.6 By - products - The combined soda process produces ammonium chloride as a by - product. There is a certain correlation between the prices of soda ash and ammonium chloride. When the price of soda ash is high, the price of ammonium chloride has more room for fluctuation, and when the price of soda ash is low, the cost of soda ash is more dependent on the price of ammonium chloride. If the demand for ammonium chloride is suppressed, it may increase the cost pressure of soda ash [30][31][34] 2.7 Upstream and Downstream Products - The downstream of soda ash is relatively concentrated, with glass demand accounting for about 73%. There is a price correlation between soda ash and glass. The price fluctuation of soda ash will be transmitted to glass through cost - push, but there are constraints. The reverse transmission is also significant, and in special situations, the price relationship between the two may decouple [35][37] 3 Main Conclusions - The conclusions are the same as the core viewpoints, emphasizing the relationship between soda ash valuation and various factors, the current situation of basis, price structure, the impact of fuel prices, cost/profit status, and the role of supply - demand in future price trends [39][40]