Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean and meal market is influenced by the US soybean oil, showing a strong trend, but pressure from South America remains. The domestic soybean meal demand is good, and inventory accumulation is expected. For sugar, the global supply increase expectation drags down the raw sugar price, and the domestic sugar price is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively. The short - term trend of oils and fats is affected by geopolitical conflicts and may run strong, but there is a risk of high - level correction. The corn market has a tight domestic supply, and the futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The pig market still faces pressure due to relatively high inventory. The peanut market may decline due to the expected increase in planting area. The egg market may have a weak spot price in the short - term, and the far - month contracts may rise under certain conditions. The apple market is expected to have a slightly stronger and stable futures price in June. The cotton market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and decline in the medium - to - long - term [3][11][19][27][31][35][44][48][56] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - External Market: CBOT soybean index rose 0.26% to 1074 cents/bu, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.44% to 294.3 US dollars/short ton [2] - Related Information: As of June 15, EU 2024/25 soybean imports reached 13.58 million tons, up from 12.65 million tons last year; rapeseed imports were 6.91 million tons, up from 5.45 million tons last year. As of June 12, US soybean export inspections were only 216,000 tons. From June 9 - 13, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso was 515.08 reais/ton. As of June 13, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%. Soybean inventory was 5.996 million tons, down 1.75% from last week and up 8.59% year - on - year; soybean meal inventory was 410,000 tons, up 7.19% from last week and down 58.79% year - on - year [2] - Logic Analysis: The US soybean market is strong, but South American pressure remains. Domestic demand for soybean meal is good, and inventory accumulation is expected [3] - Trading Strategy: Short - term, wait and buy at low points; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [6] Sugar - External Market: ICE US sugar fell, with the main contract down 0.49 (2.89%) to 16.45 cents/lb [7] - Important Information: In the next 30 days, most sugarcane areas in Guangxi will have more precipitation, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth. Brazilian hydrous ethanol prices are at an 8 - month low, and the average national alcohol - to - gasoline ratio is 67.7%. In May, Brazilian ethanol sales reached 2.99 billion liters. In the second half of May, Brazil's central - southern region crushed 47.843 million tons of sugarcane, up 5.47% year - on - year; sugar production was 2.951 million tons, up 8.86% year - on - year; ethanol production was down 3.12%. From April 2025 to June 1, the central - southern region cumulatively crushed 124.768 million tons of sugarcane, down 11.85% year - on - year; sugar production was 6.954 million tons, down 11.64% year - on - year; ethanol production was 5.74 billion liters, down 11.36% year - on - year. In the first two weeks of June, Brazil exported 1.53 million tons of sugar and molasses, down 12.8% year - on - year [8][9][10] - Logic Analysis: The raw sugar price is dragged down by the expected increase in global supply, and the domestic sugar price is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [11] - Trading Strategy: Passively follow the raw sugar price, expect short - term weakness, and sell high. For arbitrage, wait and see; for options, use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [12][13][14] Oils and Fats - External Market: The overnight CBOT US soybean oil main price fell 0.89% to 54.69 cents/lb; the BMD palm oil main price rose 0.74% to 4096 ringgit/ton [16] - Related Information: Anec expects Brazilian soybean exports in June to reach 14.37 million tons. French 2025 winter rapeseed production is expected to reach 4.2 million tons, up 9.4% year - on - year. As of June 15, EU 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.74 million tons, down from 3.36 million tons last year; soybean imports were 13.58 million tons, up from 12.65 million tons last year; rapeseed imports were 6.91 million tons, up from 5.45 million tons last year. On June 17, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 17,560 tons, down 55% from the previous trading day [17][18] - Logic Analysis: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East affect the market. India's reduction of the crude palm oil tax may increase purchases. Domestic soybean oil is in a stage of inventory accumulation, and the supply of rapeseed oil is in excess, but the bottom support is strong [19] - Trading Strategy: In the short - term, oils and fats are expected to fluctuate strongly, but beware of high - level corrections. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [20][21][22] Corn/Corn Starch - External Market Change: The CBOT corn futures main contract rose 0.5% to 438.5 cents/bu [24] - Important Information: On the 17th, DDGS prices rose slightly. The wheat market price is rising, and the corn price is also rising, increasing the wheat's feed substitution advantage. As of June 12, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 1.135 million tons, up 119,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 300 tons, unchanged from last week; the imported sorghum was 433,000 tons, down 7,000 tons from last week; the imported barley was 333,000 tons, down 25,000 tons from last week. On June 16, the purchase price in the northern port was stable, and the corn price in the North China production area continued to rise [26] - Logic Analysis: The US corn sowing is accelerating, and the domestic supply is tight. The 07 corn futures fluctuate at a high level, and the basis narrows. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures will fluctuate at a high level [27] - Trading Strategy: For the external market, the 07 corn fluctuates at the bottom. Wait and see for the 07 corn. For arbitrage, operate the corn - starch spread, buy 09 starch and short 09 corn when the spread is low. Hold long corn and short 07 or 09 corn. For options, those with spot can consider selling high carefully [28][29] Pig - Related Information: The pig price is oscillating downward. As of June 17, the national 7 - kg piglet price was 443 yuan/head, down 12 yuan/head from June 13; the 15 - kg piglet price was 542 yuan/head, down 12 yuan/head from June 13; the 50 - kg sow price was 1619 yuan/head, unchanged from June 13. On June 17, the national average wholesale price of pork was 20.23 yuan/kg, down 0.7% [31] - Logic Analysis: The market supply pressure is alleviated, but the inventory is still high, and the upward space of futures is limited [31] - Trading Strategy: Short - term short operation. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [32] Peanut - Important Information: Peanut prices in different regions are stable. The arrival volume of peanut oil mills is different, and the peanut oil price is strong, but there is room for negotiation. Peanut meal sales are weak. As of June 12, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 139,340 tons, down 5280 tons from last week; as of June 13, the peanut oil inventory was 39,930 tons, down 170 tons from last week [33][34] - Logic Analysis: Peanut spot trading is light. The expected increase in new - season planting area may lead to a price decline [35] - Trading Strategy: Short 10 - month peanuts at high prices. For arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell pk510 - C - 8800 options [36][37][38] Egg - Important Information: The main egg - producing area price rose 0.04 yuan/jin, and the main sales area price fell 0.1 yuan/jin. In May, the national laying hen inventory was 1.334 billion, up 0.11 billion from last month and 7.2% year - on - year. In May, the egg chick hatching volume of sample enterprises was 46.985 million, down 4% month - on - month and up 1% year - on - year. In the week of June 13, the national main - producing area laying hen culling volume was 20.52 million, up 2.8% from the previous week. As of June 12, the average culling age was 512 days, down 3 days from the previous week. As of June 12, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 8194 tons, down 7.4% from last week. As of June 13, the average inventory in the production link was 1.03 days, up 0.09 days from last week; the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.05 days, up 0.02 days from the previous week. As of June 12, the average weekly egg profit was - 0.47 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous week; on June 13, the expected laying hen breeding profit was 15.5 yuan/feather, down 1.09 yuan/jin from the previous week [41][42][43] - Trading Logic: The egg consumption is in the off - season, and the spot price may be weak. The far - month contracts may rise if the culling volume increases [44] - Trading Strategy: Build long positions in the 8 - and 9 - month far - month contracts in mid - to - late June. Short near - month contracts and long far - month contracts. For options, wait and see [44] Apple - Important Information: As of June 11, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 1.2746 million tons, down 107,400 tons from last week. In 2025, the cumulative apple export volume from January to March was 255,600 tons, up 9.5% year - on - year; the import volume was 13,300 tons, up 123.9% year - on - year. The apple price is stable, and the demand is in the off - season [46] - Trading Logic: The low inventory may support the price of early - maturing apples. The 10 - month futures price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in June [48] - Trading Strategy: Build long positions in the AP10 contract at low prices. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [49][50][51] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - External Market Influence: ICE US cotton rose, with the main contract rising 0.15 (0.22%) to 68.05 cents/lb [52] - Important Information: As of June 14, the Brazilian cotton harvesting progress was 2.8%, up 1.4 percentage points from last week. As of June 15, the US cotton planting rate was 85%, 4 percentage points slower than last year; the budding rate was 19%, 2 percentage points slower than last year; the boll - setting rate was 3%, the same as last year; the good - quality rate was 48%, 6 percentage points lower than last year. The cotton spot trading is generally cold, and the sales basis is firm [53][54][55] - Trading Logic: The current trading logic is mainly macro - oriented. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate in a range, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to decline [56] - Trading Strategy: The US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [57][58]
银河期货每日早盘观察-20250618
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-06-18 14:12