国债期货日报：小作文证伪，但情绪依旧积极-20250618

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The report suggests a light - position trial for long positions in treasury bond futures. The market initially weakened due to the disappointment of the "small essay" and the announcement of innovation policy measures at the Lujiazui Forum, but the overall sentiment remained positive. With the spread of geopolitical conflict news, the bulls became active again. Currently, the easing trend remains unchanged, and the long - end futures price has broken through the previous oscillation range, presenting a new trial - long opportunity [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - Treasury bond futures opened higher but then declined with the opening of the Lujiazui Forum, and then showed a weak performance. In the afternoon, the prices fluctuated upward, with TS and TL closing higher at the end of the session, while TF and T closed slightly lower. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 970 million yuan in the open market [2] - On June 18, 2025, for different contracts: TS2509 rose 0.002 to 102.538, TF2509 fell 0.02 to 106.275, T2509 fell 0.015 to 109.135, and TL2509 rose 0.08 to 120.87. There were also corresponding changes in contract positions, basis, and trading volume [5] 2. Market News - At the opening ceremony of the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the central bank governor announced the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center in Shanghai to promote the international operation of digital RMB and the development of financial market business [3] 3. Market Analysis and Operation Suggestions - The announcement of innovation policy measures by the central bank governor at the forum led to the disappointment of the "small essay" and a weakening of the bond market. However, the market's expectation of monetary policy easing continued. With the spread of geopolitical conflict news, the bulls became active again under the risk - aversion sentiment [4] - In terms of operation, the recent easing trend remains unchanged, but there is a lack of incremental factors to push interest rates to a new lower level. The long - end futures price has broken through the previous oscillation range, and the support - resistance conversion level can be regarded as a new trial - long opportunity [4]