陆家嘴论坛后，宽松交易或延续

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The expectation of monetary easing in the bond market may continue to play out, and June may be a good window for layout in the second half of the year. The market can take advantage of the potential positive expectations brought by the possible restart of the central bank's bond - buying and the compression of credit spreads before the seasonal entry of wealth management funds in July [19]. Summary by Directory I. Review of Speeches by the Central Bank Governor at the Lujiazui Forum - From 2019 - 2020, the conferences focused on Shanghai's "Five Centers" positioning, including the construction of a RMB asset allocation center, a RMB financial asset risk management center, a financial opening - up center, a demonstration center for a high - quality business environment, and a financial technology center [11]. - From 2021 - 2023, the topics shifted to green finance and inclusive finance, echoing the "Dual Carbon" goals and support for small and micro entities. Specific measures included using structural monetary policy tools to promote the green transformation of the economy and guiding banks to increase support for first - time loans and credit loans to small and micro enterprises [11]. - In 2024, the topic focused on the reform of the monetary policy framework, with five major directions proposed, promoting the transformation of the monetary policy from a parallel quantity - based and price - based regulation to a price - based regulation dominated by interest rates [11]. - In 2025, the speech revolved around global financial governance, covering four aspects: the international monetary system, cross - border payment system, global financial stability system, and international financial organization governance. The weak supervision of non - bank intermediary institutions was emphasized [12]. II. Yield Performance after Historical Lujiazui Forums - The impact of the central bank governor's statements at the Lujiazui Forum on the bond market is relatively limited, and the yield trend often continues the previous situation. The yield change within 30 trading days after the conference is mostly within 10bp, except in 2020 and 2021 [15]. - The probability of yield decline is relatively high, but the trading mainline has limited correlation with the conference content. In 2020, the yield was in an upward adjustment window due to the shift of monetary policy to neutral and the acceleration of government bond issuance. In 2019, 2021, and 2023, the yield declined under the drive of monetary easing. In 2024, the yield was in a narrow - range oscillation [15]. III. Bond Market Strategy: Loose Trading Continues, Seize Layout Opportunities - 10 - year Treasury Bonds: Maintain narrow fluctuations. When the market approaches 1.62%, it is recommended to take partial profits. The bond market is expected to trade within a narrow range of 1.6% - 1.7% [20]. - Short - term Treasury Bonds: There may still be a compression space of 5 - 10bp. Considering factors such as increased supply and a slower bond - buying rhythm this year, the downward range of the short - end may be further reduced [23]. - Certificates of Deposit: With loose funds, they are waiting for the drive of wealth management funds in July. The reasonable pricing level is around 1.6% - 1.7%, and it may continue to repair towards 1.6% [28]. - Credit Bonds: Pay attention to the opportunities of credit sinking within 3 years and a slight compression of the spread for 4 - 5 - year bonds. There may be a catch - up opportunity for credit bonds within 3 years, and the 4 - 5 - year credit spread has relatively sufficient odds compared to the 2024 low [29].