策略日报：小幅收涨-20250618

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with short-term rates nearly flat and long-term rates slightly rising. The report suggests that the stock market's low volatility and weak fundamentals will limit upward potential, indicating a likely downward adjustment in the future. The bond market is expected to benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital as geopolitical conflicts escalate [18][6]. Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market saw a slight decline during the day, with the three major indices closing slightly higher. The total trading volume was 1.22 trillion, a minor decrease of 0.02 trillion from the previous day. A total of 1,727 stocks rose while 3,295 stocks fell. The report emphasizes that under weak fundamentals, the probability of a bull market driven by volume is low, and future market movements are likely to amplify volatility downward. Investors are advised to take profits and shift positions to low-yield sectors such as dividends, agriculture, and technology [22][23]. - In terms of industry performance, electronics, communications, and national defense sectors led the gains, while beauty care, real estate, and construction materials sectors lagged [22]. Group 3: US Stock Market - Concerns over escalating Middle East conflicts have led to declines in the three major US indices, with the Dow Jones down 0.7%, Nasdaq down 0.91%, and S&P 500 down 0.84%. The report indicates that rising US Treasury yields may become a focal point for market trading narratives, suggesting that if volatility can be successfully amplified, it may present a better buying opportunity [27][8]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1858, an increase of 34 basis points from the previous close. The report notes that the RMB has appreciated significantly due to better-than-expected trade data between China and the US, with expectations for the RMB to rise to around 7.1 [31][32]. Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index rose by 1.18%, with oil, polyester, and chemical sectors leading the gains, while the steel sector lagged. The report advises caution due to high volatility in crude oil prices and suggests that optimistic investors may consider light positions [35][36].