金信期货日刊-20250619

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The soybean supply is tight due to Argentina's reduced soybean production and Brazil's delayed harvest, and the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio has reached a five - year low. The demand for soybean oil from the food processing and biodiesel industries is increasing, and the rise in international crude oil prices has also had a positive impact on soybean oil futures prices. Therefore, the soybean oil futures market should be treated with a bullish bias [3]. - The overall situation is favorable for A - shares. The market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations, but a short - term directional choice is pending [6]. - Gold is still bullish. Although the Shanghai gold is relatively weak, it will follow the upward trend. Reaching a new high is only a matter of time, and a low - buying strategy is more prudent [10][11]. - For iron ore, the supply has increased month - on - month, iron water production has weakened seasonally, and ports have resumed inventory accumulation. The over - valuation risk has increased. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits and important support levels below, and it should be viewed with a fluctuating perspective [14][15]. - For glass, the supply side has not experienced significant cold repairs due to losses, factory inventories are still high, downstream demand has not seen a continuous increase, and it is necessary to wait for the effect of real - estate stimulus policies. Technically, it has shown narrow - range fluctuations recently and should be viewed with a fluctuating mindset [18][19]. - For urea, the domestic daily production is about 20560 tons with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is slow, and the price is in a weak adjustment. When it reaches the previous support area, short - position holders should take profits and beware of a strong long - side rebound [22]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Soybean Oil Futures - On June 18, 2025, the main contract y2509 of soybean oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose by 72 yuan to 8040 yuan. The reasons for the recent price increase include tight soybean supply (Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production decreased to 49 million tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease, and Brazil's soybean harvest was delayed, with the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio dropping to 28%, a five - year low), increased demand from the food processing and biodiesel industries, and the positive impact of the 4.28% increase in international crude oil prices on June 17 [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The overall situation is favorable for A - shares. The market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations, but a short - term directional choice is pending. Today, the three major A - share indexes rebounded after hitting the bottom, oscillated slightly higher in the afternoon, and closed with small positive lines [6][7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Due to the intensification of geopolitical risks caused by Israel's raid on Iran, the external gold market is approaching a new high. Although Shanghai gold is relatively weak, it still follows the upward trend. Gold is still bullish, reaching a new high is only a matter of time, and a low - buying strategy is more prudent [10][11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore has increased month - on - month, iron water production has weakened seasonally, and ports have resumed inventory accumulation. The over - valuation risk has increased. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits and important support levels below, and it should be viewed with a fluctuating perspective [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The supply side of glass has not experienced significant cold repairs due to losses, factory inventories are still high, downstream demand has not seen a continuous increase, and it is necessary to wait for the effect of real - estate stimulus policies. Technically, it has shown narrow - range fluctuations recently and should be viewed with a fluctuating mindset [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Urea - The domestic daily production of urea is about 20560 tons with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is slow, and the price is in a weak adjustment. When it reaches the previous support area, short - position holders should take profits and beware of a strong long - side rebound [22].