冠通期货每周核心策略推荐-20250619

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trading strategies for multiple futures varieties, including crude oil, asphalt, PVC, L&PP, copper, and urea, based on their supply - demand situations, market sentiment, and geopolitical factors [3][6][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Trading Logic: OPEC+ increased production, but growth was below expectations. Supply pressure eased due to wildfires in Canada, Middle - East geopolitical risks, and a decline in US drilling. Demand improved with better - than - expected US economic data and the start of the traditional travel season. However, there are concerns about OPEC+ future production increases and trade - war impacts on demand [3]. - Multi - Short View: The price is expected to oscillate upward [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Lightly buy crude oil call options [3]. Asphalt - Trading Logic: Supply increased as the asphalt开工率 rose. Demand was mixed, with road asphalt开工率 down. Inventory was low. Geopolitical factors and trade - war concerns affected the market. As it enters the peak season, the price is expected to be in high - level oscillation [3]. - Multi - Short View: High - level oscillation [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread [3]. PVC - Trading Logic: Supply was high as the开工率 was relatively high. Demand was weak, with exports affected by Indian policies and the real - estate market still in a slow - recovery phase. Inventory was high. However, positive commodity sentiment from geopolitical factors and trade talks may lead to a small rebound [3]. - Multi - Short View: Small rebound [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Sell short after the price rebounds [3]. L&PP - Trading Logic: The开工率 of plastics and PP was relatively high. Downstream开工率 decreased slightly. Inventory was high. Positive commodity sentiment may lead to a small rebound [3]. - Multi - Short View: Small rebound [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Sell short after the price rebounds [3]. Copper - Trading Logic: Macro - uncertainties came from geopolitical conflicts and Sino - US trade talks. Supply was stable, while demand weakened, with consumption down and downstream拿货积极性 low. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts boosted bullish sentiment, but the price remained in an oscillation range [6]. - Multi - Short View: Range - bound fluctuation [6]. - Operation Suggestion: Go long at low prices within the range [6]. Urea - Trading Logic: Supply was high with daily production around 200,000 tons. Demand was weak, with agricultural demand yet to fully start and industrial demand weak. Inventory was under pressure. The price rebounded due to better weekend sales, but the rebound height is limited [9]. - Multi - Short View: Low - level rebound with limited upside [9]. - Operation Suggestion: Sell short after the price rebounds [9].