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工业硅、多晶硅日评:低位整理-20250619
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-06-19 01:00

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Report's Core View - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, high inventory pressure, and no expected reversal of silicon prices. It is expected to operate under pressure at a low level in the short term, and the subsequent downward space may be relatively limited [1]. - The fundamentals of the polysilicon market are weak, and the transaction price has declined. It is expected that there will be no upward trend in the short term, and the strategy is mainly to short on rebounds [1]. Group 3 - Summary According to Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price: The average price of industrial silicon不通氧553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.88% to 7,425 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion. In the southwest production area, although the flood season is approaching, there is a lack of confidence in the future market, and the overall wait - and - see sentiment is strong, with insufficient willingness to resume production. The overall start - up has declined [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction situation, and the resumption of production may be postponed; the organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production to support prices, but the demand is weak. The downstream wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and the actual transaction price has declined. The silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon - Price: N - type dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon re - feeding material remained flat at 32.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained flat at 31.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 29.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 1.88% to 33,370 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintained a production - reduction situation, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly, but overall it remains within 100,000 tons [1]. - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials has increased, the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have continued to decline, the market demand has slowed down, and the market transaction is weak [1]. Other Information - The quotation of raw rubber enterprises in North China has started to loosen downward, and the market's mainstream quotation has shifted down slightly. It is expected that there will still be a small downward adjustment space in the future [1]. - From January to May, the output of new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 40.8% and 18.3% year - on - year respectively. The power generation of clean energy increased rapidly. From January to May, the power generation of wind and solar energy of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 11.1% and 18.3% respectively [1].