对二甲苯：海内外供应偏紧，趋势走强，月差正套，PTA，成本支撑，基差月差正套，MEG，伊朗多套装置停车，短期偏强

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX is expected to continue strengthening due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, resulting in tight domestic and imported supplies. A strategy of going long on PX and short on SC is recommended, and short - term positive spreads are expected as the PXN has significantly strengthened to $255 per ton [6]. - PTA is supported by cost factors, with both unilateral prices and spreads (monthly and basis) showing strength. Despite increased maintenance efforts by polyester bottle - chip and staple - fiber factories, PTA supply remains tight, leading to a significant strengthening of the basis [6]. - MEG is expected to be short - term bullish as Iranian ethylene glycol plants have shut down. A strategy of reducing the position of going long on PTA and short on MEG is suggested. Attention should be paid to the start - up and shipping changes of Iranian ethylene glycol plants under the Israel - Iran conflict [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Price Changes: On June 18, 2025, compared with the previous day, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had daily price increases of 3.1%, 2.8%, 1.6%, 2.1%, and 3.0% respectively [1]. - Monthly Spreads: The daily changes in the monthly spreads of PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB07 on June 18 were 10, 4, 14, - 22, and - 5 respectively [1]. - Inter - variety Spreads: The daily changes in the inter - variety spreads such as PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, etc. on June 18 showed different trends, with values like - 6, 61, etc. [1]. - Basis: The daily changes in the basis of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and PX - naphtha spread on June 18 were - 212, 90, 3, 40, etc. respectively [1]. - Warehouse Receipts: The daily change in PX warehouse receipts on June 18 was - 5, while the warehouse receipts of other varieties remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - PX: On June 18, the PX price rose. Two Asian spot transactions in August were made at $897 and $896 respectively. The PX valuation was $888 per ton, up $4 from the 17th. A 134 - million - ton PX plant in the Middle East postponed its restart, another 142 - million - ton PX plant shut down due to war, and a 40 - million - ton PX plant in South Korea was restarting. The PX - naphtha spread widened to $255 per ton, up $14 from a week ago [3][4]. - PTA: On June 18, PTA futures rose significantly. The spot market negotiation atmosphere weakened compared with the 17th, and the spot basis first rose and then fell. The mainstream spot basis was 09 + 293 [5]. - MEG: A 44 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Canada restarted, and a 46 - million - ton/year plant will restart this weekend. A 90 - million - ton/year plant in the Northeast restarted and increased its load. From June 16 - 22, the planned arrival at major ports was about 10.0 million tons [5]. - Polyester: On June 18, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally average, with an estimated average sales rate of 5 - 6% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 57% by 3:00 pm [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is 2, while that of PTA and MEG is 1 [7]