Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: The US biofuel policy and Middle - East geopolitical situation are both favorable [2][4]. - Soybean oil: Expected to oscillate upwards [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed slightly higher, and domestic soybean meal futures are in an adjustment and oscillation phase [2][15]. - Soybean: Spot prices are stable, and the futures market is in an adjustment and oscillation phase [2][15]. - Corn: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner [2][18]. - Sugar: In a low - level consolidation phase [2][22]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the influence of external markets [2][26]. - Eggs: The culling of laying hens is accelerating, waiting for the bullish factors in the peak season to materialize [2][33]. - Pigs: Waiting for spot price confirmation, with the cost center of long - term contracts moving down [2][35]. - Peanuts: There is support at the lower level [2][38]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil a. Fundamental Data - Palm oil: The closing price of the main contract during the day was 8,518 yuan/ton, up 0.85%, and 8,528 yuan/ton at night, up 0.12%. The trading volume was 655,571 lots, a decrease of 208,528 lots, and the open interest was 512,360 lots, an increase of 9,252 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [5]. - Soybean oil: The closing price of the main contract during the day was 8,084 yuan/ton, up 1.40%, and 8,098 yuan/ton at night. The trading volume was 427,311 lots, an increase of 15,543 lots, and the open interest was 585,384 lots, an increase of 19,515 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [5]. b. Macro and Industry News - The conflict between Iran and Israel may increase the export cost of Malaysian palm oil due to rising logistics and transportation costs [6][7]. - Indian officials called for the reversal of the decision to reduce the import tariff of crude palm oil by 10% [8]. - Indian refineries cancelled 65,000 tons of crude palm oil orders due to the sudden surge in Malaysian palm oil prices [9]. c. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 1; Soybean oil trend intensity: 1 [14]. 2. Soybean Meal and Soybean a. Fundamental Data - Soybean meal: The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 during the day was 3,062 yuan/ton, up 0.03%, and 3,062 yuan/ton at night, down 0.29%. The trading volume was 864,500 tons, and the inventory was 421,400 tons [15]. - Soybean: The closing price of DCE soybean 2509 during the day was 4,258 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and 4,234 yuan/ton at night, down 0.63% [15]. b. Macro and Industry News - On June 18, CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher, driven by the strong rebound of wheat. The Ukrainian parliament rejected the proposal to impose a 10% export tariff on soybeans and rapeseed [15][17]. c. Trend Intensity - Soybean meal trend intensity: 0; Soybean trend intensity: 0 (only for the daily price fluctuation of the main contract on the reporting day) [17]. 3. Corn a. Fundamental Data - The closing price of C2507 was 2,363 yuan/ton, up 0.17% during the day, and remained unchanged at night. The trading volume was 361,246 lots, an increase of 21,257 lots, and the open interest was 493,230 lots, a decrease of 62,344 lots. - The closing price of C2509 was 2,397 yuan/ton, up 0.17% during the day, and 2,399 yuan/ton at night, up 0.08%. The trading volume was 472,636 lots, an increase of 218,445 lots, and the open interest was 837,782 lots, an increase of 60,893 lots [19]. b. Macro and Industry News - The northern corn port - collection price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in other regions was stable or rising [20]. c. Trend Intensity - Corn trend intensity: 0 [21]. 4. Sugar a. Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price was 16.35 cents/pound, down 0.1 cent. The mainstream spot price was 6,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The futures main contract price was 5,679 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton [22]. b. Macro and Industry News - Globally, the USDA expects a 4.73% increase in production in the 25/26 season. In Brazil, exports in May decreased by 20% year - on - year. In India, the 24/25 season's sugar production was 25.74 million tons as of May 15. In China, imports of sugar, syrup, and premixes decreased significantly from January to April [22]. - Domestically, the CAOC expects the 24/25 season's production to be 11.15 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. As of the end of May, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 8.11 million tons [23]. c. Trend Intensity - Sugar trend intensity: 0 [25]. 5. Cotton a. Fundamental Data - The closing price of CF2509 was 13,540 yuan/ton, up 0.11% during the day, and 13,470 yuan/ton at night, down 0.52%. The trading volume was 169,609 lots, a decrease of 29,392 lots, and the open interest was 797,362 lots, an increase of 3,511 lots [26]. b. Macro and Industry News - The domestic cotton spot market was sluggish, and the cotton yarn and fabric markets were also weak. ICE cotton futures fell due to concerns about demand and good weather in the US cotton - growing areas [27]. c. Trend Intensity - Cotton trend intensity: - 1 [30]. 6. Eggs a. Fundamental Data - The closing price of egg 2507 was 2,956 yuan/500 kg, up 3.10%, and the trading volume was 43,139 lots, with the open interest decreasing by 8,723 lots. - The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,691 yuan/500 kg, up 0.85%, and the trading volume was 17,581 lots, with the open interest decreasing by 798 lots [33]. b. Trend Intensity - Egg trend intensity: 0 [33]. 7. Pigs a. Fundamental Data - The Henan spot price was 14,330 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year. The Sichuan spot price was 13,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year. The Guangdong spot price was 15,640 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [35]. - The closing price of pig 2507 was 13,340 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton year - on - year. The closing price of pig 2509 was 13,835 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton year - on - year. The closing price of pig 2511 was 13,400 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [35]. b. Market Logic - The current futures market is in the expectation - trading stage. The 09 contract is strong due to the expected bottoming - out and rising in July. In the long - term, the inventory cycle has its own characteristics, with an expected reverse spread structure. Short - term attention should be paid to capital sentiment [37]. c. Trend Intensity - Pig trend intensity: 0 [36]. 8. Peanuts a. Fundamental Data - The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price of Henan Baisha common peanuts was 9,460 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The closing price of PK510 was 8,254 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The closing price of PK511 was 8,042 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [38]. b. Spot Market Focus - In most peanut - producing areas, raw material trading is almost over, mainly inventory trading. Prices in some areas are stable, and in some areas, they are slightly stronger [39]. c. Trend Intensity - Peanut trend intensity: 0 [40].
棕榈油：美国生柴政策及中东地缘均有利好，豆油：震荡上行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-19 01:22