Group 1: Report Overview - Date: June 19, 2025 [4][9][13] - Report Focus: Green finance and new energy commodities, including nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel: Concerns at the mine end have cooled, and smelting supply has full elasticity [2][4] - Stainless steel: Negative feedback has led to increased production cuts, resulting in a weak supply - demand balance and low - level fluctuations [2][4] Fundamental Data - Nickel: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 118,480 yuan, down 90 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 76,829 lots, down 23,626 lots [4] - Stainless steel: The closing price of the main contract was 12,525 yuan, up 45 yuan; trading volume was 130,738 lots, up 25,428 lots [4] News - Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered trial production; a nickel smelter resumed production; an Indonesian冷轧厂 planned to continue maintenance from June to July [4][5][7] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [8] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipt clearance has accelerated, and potential purchases should be noted [2][9] Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2507 contract was 60,480 yuan, up 260 yuan; warehouse receipts decreased by 1,746 lots [9] News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose; Yahua Group planned to restructure its lithium business; Ukraine opened lithium mining to private investors [10][11] Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [11] Group 4: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts continue to be cleared, and attention should be paid to the upside space [2][13] - Polysilicon: Upstream production has resumed, and the futures price has fallen [2][13] Fundamental Data - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 7,425 yuan, up 65 yuan; social inventory was 57.2 million tons, down 1.5 million tons [13] - Polysilicon: The closing price of the PS2507 contract was 33,370 yuan, down 640 yuan; factory inventory was 27.5 million tons, up 0.6 million tons [13] News - The US Senate's draft bill on the photovoltaic market did not ease industry concerns [13][15] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [15]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250619
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-19 01:21