工业硅：仓单持续去化，关注上方空间，多晶硅：上游复产，盘面下跌

Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - Title: "Industrial Silicon: Continuous Decline in Warehouse Receipts, Focus on Upside Potential" - Date: June 19, 2025 [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a trend of continuous decline in warehouse receipts, and attention should be paid to its upside potential. The polysilicon market experiences a decline in the futures market due to upstream复产 [1][2]. - The US Senate Finance Committee's draft legislation on the "One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB)" has brought policy uncertainty to the US photovoltaic market, affecting the polysilicon and related industries [2][4]. 3. Industry Data Summaries 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2509: The closing price is 7,425 yuan/ton, with a change of -135 yuan/ton compared to T - 5 and -720 yuan/ton compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 451,986 lots, and the open interest is 317,763 lots [2]. - PS2507: The closing price is 33,370 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan/ton from T - 1 and 885 yuan/ton from T - 5. The trading volume is 94,724 lots, and the open interest is 30,435 lots [2]. 3.2 Basis and Price - Industrial silicon: The spot premium against East China Si5530 is +650 yuan/ton. The prices of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 and Yunnan Si4210 remain unchanged compared to T - 1, at 8,150 yuan/ton and 9,900 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium against N - type re - feedstock is +2,130 yuan/ton. The price of N - type re - feedstock is 35,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan/ton from T - 5 and 3,250 yuan/ton from T - 22 [2]. 3.3 Profit - Silicon plant profit: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 is - 3,786 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new - standard 553 is - 6,938 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon enterprise profit: - 5.5 yuan/kg [2]. 3.4 Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 57.2 million tons, down 1.5 million tons from T - 5 and 2.7 million tons from T - 22. The enterprise inventory is 23.6 million tons, and the industry inventory is 80.8 million tons [2]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 27.5 million tons, up 0.6 million tons from T - 5 and 2.5 million tons from T - 22 [2]. 3.5 Raw Material Costs - Silicon ore: The price in Xinjiang is 385 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan is 360 yuan/ton [2]. - Washed coal: The price in Xinjiang is 1,290 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is 900 yuan/ton [2]. - Petroleum coke: The price of Maoming coke is 1,400 yuan/ton, and Yangzi coke is 1,760 yuan/ton [2]. - Electrodes: The price of graphite electrodes is 10,990 yuan/ton, and carbon electrodes is 6,850 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy - Organic silicon (DMC): The price is 10,650 yuan/ton, and the enterprise profit is - 1,427 yuan/ton [2]. - Aluminum alloy (ADC12): The price is 20,150 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum enterprise profit is - 750 yuan/ton [2]. 4. Macro and Industry News - The US Senate Finance Committee released the draft of the "One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB)". Under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the 48E clause will continue to provide a 100% investment tax credit (ITC) for photovoltaic projects using domestic components, but the credit rate will gradually decrease for projects starting in 2026 and later, and will end after 2027 [2][4]. 5. Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1 - Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 - The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [4]