国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250619

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various commodities in the black series are expected to show wide - range fluctuations. Specifically, iron ore will experience range - bound oscillations due to fluctuating expectations; rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal will be affected by macro - sentiment or sector - wide sentiment resonance; thermal coal's demand remains to be released; and logs will undergo basis repair [2][4][6][10][14][18][22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The previous day's futures closing price was 695.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.50%. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores remained unchanged. Some basis and spread values decreased slightly [4]. - Macro and Industry News: From January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [4]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Fundamentals: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 2,986 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase; for hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,102 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase. Spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and some basis and spread values also changed slightly [6]. - Macro and Industry News: In early June 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel increased by 3.2% month - on - month, pig iron by 2.6% month - on - month, and steel decreased by 6.4% month - on - month. From January to May, infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year [7][8]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices and trading volumes varied. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased. Some basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread values changed [10]. - Macro and Industry News: There were price quotes for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions, and a silicon - manganese plant in Inner Mongolia newly ignited a furnace, while a silicon - iron furnace in Qinghai was shut down [11][12]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The previous day's futures closing price of coking coal JM2509 was 790.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase; for coke J2509, it was 1375 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan/ton with a 0.70% increase. Some spot prices remained unchanged, and some basis and spread values decreased [14]. - Price and Position Information: There were price quotes for coking coal in northern ports and CCI metallurgical coal index changes. On June 18, in the top 20 member positions of DCE, the long positions of coking coal JM2509 decreased, and the short positions increased; for coke J2509, both long and short positions increased [14][16]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Thermal Coal - Previous Day's Inner - Market Situation: The ZC2507 contract had no trading the previous day. The opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price [19]. - Fundamentals: There were price quotes for imported thermal coal in southern ports and domestic thermal coal in production areas. On June 18, in the top 20 member positions of ZCE, the long and short positions of the ZC2507 contract did not change [20]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]. Logs - Fundamentals: Futures closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions had different degrees of changes, and some basis and spread values changed significantly [22]. - Macro and Industry News: From January to May, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year [24]. - Trend Intensity: 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [24].