国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250619

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with specific trends and suggestions for each commodity [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: The Federal Reserve continues to hold rates steady, with a trend strength of 0 [6][7][11]. - Silver: Expected to continue rising, with a trend strength of 0 [7][11]. Base Metals - Copper: Falling inventories support prices, with a trend strength of 0 [13][15]. - Aluminum: Expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend strength of 1; Alumina: Monitor production cuts and maintenance, with a trend strength of 0 [16][18]. - Zinc: Under medium - term pressure, monitor social inventory changes, with a trend strength of -1 [19][20]. - Lead: Expected to trade within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [22][23]. - Tin: Tight present but weak future expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [25][29]. - Nickel: Concerns at the mine end have cooled, and smelting supply is elastic, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with supply and demand both weak and prices oscillating at a low level, with a trend strength of 0 [30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Warehouse receipt de - stocking is accelerating, monitor potential purchases, with a trend strength of 0 [34][36]. - Industrial Silicon: Warehouse receipts are continuously de - stocking, monitor upside potential, with a trend strength of -1; Polysilicon: Upstream restarts production, and the futures price is falling, with a trend strength of -1 [38][40]. - Iron Ore: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [41]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by macro - sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [45][46][48]. - Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon: Affected by sector sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [50][53]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [54][56]. - Steam Coal: Demand needs to be released, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61]. - PVC: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long run [54]. - Fuel Oil: Night trading oscillated weakly, and short - term strength is expected to pause; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The adjustment trend continues, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market rebounded slightly [56]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: U.S. biofuel policy and Middle - East geopolitics are both favorable [63]. - Soybean Oil: Expected to rise oscillatingly [63]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1: Oscillating and adjusting [66]. - Corn: Expected to trade within a range [68]. - Sugar: Consolidating at a low level [69]. - Cotton: Monitor the impact of external markets [70]. - Eggs: The culling of laying hens is accelerating, waiting for the peak - season bullish factors to materialize [72]. - Hogs: Waiting for spot price confirmation, and the cost center for the far - end contracts is moving down [73]. - Peanuts: There is support at the bottom [74]. Others - Container Freight Index (European Line): Currently in a sideways market, consider holding long positions in the August contract and short positions in the October contract [57]. - Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip: Monitor the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at a high level [61]. - Offset Printing Paper: Expected to trade within a range [62]. - Log: The basis is being repaired, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 1 [62][64].