集运指数(欧线):暂时震荡市,08多单、10空单酌情持有
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-19 01:37
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2508 contract shows strong current reality but weak future expectations. It is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1900 - 2050 points, and hold short positions for the 10 contract [17]. - The freight peak and inflection point of the European line are not clear. Subjectively, it is expected that the freight peak will appear in late July, with the market average price reaching $3500 - $4000 per FEU, and there is a price - drop expectation in August [17]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Contents 3.1 Futures Market - The main 2508 contract of the container shipping index (European line) closed at 2092 points, up 3.18%, and the second - main 2510 contract closed at 1427.9 points, up 1.20% [1][14]. 3.2 Spot Freight - In late June, Yangming lowered the freight of a single ship at the Shanghai port by $200 per FEU on June 30, while other sailings maintained a unified price of $2900 per FEU. MSC's online freight for the 26th - week sailing dropped from $3240 to $2640 per FEU. In July, Maersk's opening price for the 27th - week European base was $3400 per FEU, a $700 increase from the 26th - week opening price [15]. 3.3 Fundamental Situation - In June, the European line market had a relatively healthy fundamental situation. The shipping companies promoted freight increases of $750 and $450 per FEU in early and late June respectively, and the market freight rate center reached around $3000 per FEU at the end of June [15]. - In July, supply and demand may both increase, with the capacity increasing by 1.8% month - on - month, which is roughly the same as the historical increase in cargo volume in July [15][17]. 3.4 US Line Situation - In late June, the freight of the US line continued to decline, with a larger decline in the US - West line. The freight of the US - East line may fall back to around $5000 per FEU. The pressure to stop the decline in the US line freight is still high in early July [16]. 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [18].