宝城期货煤焦早报-20250619

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, with a reference view of low - level oscillation. The coking coal market has a supply - demand stalemate, and the coke market has a weak fundamental situation but is supported by coking coal costs [1][5][6] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For coking coal 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and bullish respectively, with a reference view of low - level oscillation due to the interweaving of long and short factors [1] - For coke 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and bullish respectively, with a reference view of low - level oscillation because of the stalemate between long and short [1] Price and Market Analysis of Coking Coal - On the night of June 18, the main coking coal contract fell slightly by 785 yuan/ton, a 0.82% decline. The latest offer of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port was 865.0 yuan/ton, a 2.8% week - on - week decline, with a futures warehouse receipt cost of about 834 yuan/ton. The change in market sentiment comes from supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations. However, it will take time to reverse the supply - loose pattern, and the supply pressure may return after July. The marginal positive effect of the Sino - US London economic and trade consultation mechanism on terminal demand is limited, and the key may be the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on international energy prices [5] Price and Market Analysis of Coke - On the night of June 18, the main coke contract opened higher and declined slightly, maintaining a low - level oscillation pattern. After three rounds of price cuts, the coke price was stable this week. The latest offer of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1270 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the futures warehouse receipt cost was about 1401 yuan/ton. The coke market has a pattern of both supply and demand decline. Recently, the marginal decline in coking coal production and international events have strengthened the cost support of coke futures, driving the price to stop falling and stabilize [6]