生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250619

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs is expected to be weak with fluctuations. The main reasons are that the supply of live pigs will be abundant in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, and the demand in the second and third quarters will not strongly support the price increase. Although there is a possibility of the spot price hitting a new low, the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On June 18, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 750 lots. The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on the regression of futures and spot prices and delivery games. The far - month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the decline in spot prices and the expected increase in subsequent slaughter volume. The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 1,467 lots today, with a position of about 80,000 lots, a maximum price of 13,880 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,765 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,835 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season. The fat - standard spread may fluctuate and adjust. The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding industry, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and weak demand support in the second and third quarters. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, the strong resilience of spot prices, and the limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume and the approaching of the consumption peak season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will be weak with fluctuations. The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs will be sufficient in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, and the demand in the second and third quarters will not strongly support the price increase. If there is a large - scale and concentrated weight reduction in June and July, the pig price may hit a new low. Although the spot price may reach a new low, the 09 contract price is currently in a relatively reasonable range, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On June 18, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg compared with the previous day, a decline of 0.07%. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.38 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.07 yuan/kg compared with the previous day, an increase of 0.49%. The slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.87 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg compared with the previous day, a decline of 0.72%. Among the futures prices, the prices of various contracts all showed an upward trend, with the increase ranging from 0.04% to 0.26% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report provides historical data on national live pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip average price, corn national grain depot purchase average price, futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [7][8][9][10][11][12][13].