Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil is expected to remain oscillating with a slightly upward trend, and the spread of SC over Brent is expected to rise [1]. - Precious metals are recommended to be on the sidelines due to the repeated risk - aversion sentiment [2]. - Short positions in copper are recommended to be held [3]. - For aluminum, attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread [4]. - For cast aluminum alloy, consider taking a long position in AD and a short position in AL when the spread widens [5]. - For alumina, consider short - selling on rebounds if the futures discount continues to repair [6]. - For zinc, short - term short positions can partially take profit, and there may be opportunities to cover short positions at high levels [7]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Short positions in nickel are recommended to be held [9]. - A small number of short positions in far - month tin contracts are recommended to be held [10]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - Industrial silicon is expected to mainly oscillate, with the main trend remaining bearish [12]. - Polysilicon is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly downward trend [13]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [14]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate [15]. - The upward space of coke and coking coal prices should not be overly optimistic [16][17]. - The price of manganese silicon is still under pressure [18]. - For ferrosilicon, observe the sustainability of inventory reduction [19]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [20]. - The cracking of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be under pressure [21]. - For asphalt, wait for the layout opportunity after the risk of geopolitical premium of crude oil is removed [22]. - Liquefied petroleum gas is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend [23]. - The urea futures market remains strong, but be wary of the tightening of export policies [24]. - For methanol, closely monitor relevant data and be wary of a high - level decline in the market if the conflict eases [25]. - For styrene, the price is mainly guided by oil prices, and the fundamentals are relatively stable [26]. - For polypropylene and polyethylene, the market is mainly driven by geopolitical risks, and the supply - demand contradiction lacks improvement [27]. - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level, and caustic soda is under pressure at a high level [28]. - PX and PTA are strong in the short term but have potential risks in the medium term [29]. - Ethylene glycol is bullish in the short term and expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium term [30]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, the short - fiber supply - demand is improving, while the bottle - chip has potential for processing margin repair but with caution [31]. - Glass is recommended to be operated with caution due to the high - inventory and weak - demand pattern [32]. - For natural rubber and its related products, the strategy is to be bullish [33]. - Soda ash is recommended to adopt a high - level short - selling strategy [34]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, pay attention to weather changes and oil market fluctuations [35]. - For vegetable oils, a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [36]. - For rapeseed and rapeseed oil, the short - term strategy changes from bullish to neutral [37]. - For soybeans No.1, pay attention to weather guidance [38]. - Corn futures are expected to continue to oscillate [39]. - For live pigs, pay attention to the weight - reduction rhythm of large farms [40]. - Egg prices are considered a rebound rather than a reversal [41]. - For cotton, the operation strategy is to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [42]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [43]. - For apples, wait and see and pay attention to bagging data [44]. - For wood, wait and see due to the weak price [45]. - For pulp, wait and see and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on significant pullbacks [46]. - For stock indices, pay attention to the investment opportunities in the science and technology growth sector and the subsequent development of macro - factors [47]. - Treasury bonds are expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend [48]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight, international oil prices oscillated. Brent 08 contract fell 1.44%, while SC08 contract rose 2.1%. The Israel - Iran conflict continues, and the US may directly intervene. European officials will hold nuclear negotiations with the Iranian foreign minister. Supply risks remain before the US confirms participation. Last week, US DOE crude oil inventories dropped significantly by 1.1473 billion barrels due to increased net exports [1]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Oil prices rise due to geopolitical conflicts, and oil - related futures follow suit but with smaller increases. The Israel - Iran conflict boosts the geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil, but the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for shipping and power generation is affected by high cracking valuations. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant, and demand is weak [21]. - Asphalt: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, oil prices rise, and asphalt follows. The increase in asphalt production is limited. The shipments of 54 sample refineries are increasing, and terminal demand is expected to improve. Current inventory is declining, but the BU cracking is under pressure before the geopolitical risk of oil prices is removed [22]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The Middle - East geopolitical conflict is still ongoing, and the international market is strong. Domestic chemical demand is recovering, but there is pressure on margins due to rising import costs. If geopolitical risks ease, supply pressure may lead to a decline. The market is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend [23]. Metals - Precious Metals: Overnight, precious metals declined. The Fed maintained interest rates, and the dot - plot shows a split on rate - cut expectations. The Israel - Iran conflict intensifies, and risk - aversion sentiment is repeated. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Base Metals - Copper: Overnight, LME copper oscillated and closed lower. Pay attention to the change in US copper tariff premium. The Fed maintained interest rates and lowered economic growth expectations. Short positions are recommended to be held [3]. - Aluminum: Overnight, SHFE aluminum oscillated. The low - inventory situation deepens the Back structure, which is beneficial to long positions in the short term. However, downstream开工 is weakening, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [4]. - Zinc: The actual delivery of SHFE zinc 06 contract was 8,675 tons, and the 07 contract has a high position. The supply - demand in June is weak. Short - term short positions can partially take profit, and there may be opportunities to cover short positions at high levels [7]. - Lead: The high inventory of the outer market may open the import window. The market rumor of Tianneng's production cut led to a decline in SHFE lead. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: SHFE nickel declined. The upstream price support weakened, and inventory increased. It is in a bearish trend, and short positions are recommended to be held [9]. - Tin: Overnight, LME tin oscillated and closed lower. Pay attention to the import of tin concentrates in May. A small number of short positions in far - month contracts are recommended to be held [10]. - Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: The iron ore market oscillated overnight. Supply is in the peak season, and port inventory is expected to increase. Demand is weak in the off - season, and the market is expected to oscillate [15]. - Coke & Coking Coal: Coke prices oscillated upward, and there is an expectation of the fourth round of price cuts. Coking coal prices oscillated narrowly. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the upward space of prices is limited [16][17]. - Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon: Manganese silicon prices oscillated downward, and the price of manganese ore is under pressure. Ferrosilicon prices oscillated, and the supply - demand contradiction is small. Pay attention to the sustainability of inventory reduction [18][19]. - Steel: Night - session steel prices rose first and then fell. The off - season demand for rebar is weakening, and the inventory reduction slows down. The demand for hot - rolled coil is resilient, but inventory is accumulating. The market is expected to oscillate [14]. Chemicals - Methanol: Iranian methanol plants have large - scale shutdowns and production cuts, and the shipping safety risk in the Strait of Hormuz increases. However, port inventory is low, and the expected rapid inventory build - up is likely to fail. The market is excited, but be wary of a decline if the conflict eases [25]. - Styrene: Geopolitical risks lead to large oil - price fluctuations, which guide styrene prices. The supply of styrene increases, and the demand maintains a rigid support [26]. - Polypropylene & Plastic: Geopolitical risks drive the polyolefin market. The demand for polyethylene is in the off - season, and the supply - demand contradiction lacks improvement. Polypropylene is also in the off - season, and the supply pressure increases [27]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC has a high - supply and weak - demand pattern, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda supply is high, and the price is under pressure at a high level [28]. - PX & PTA: PX and PTA opened high and then fell. The polyester filament sales are weak, and there is a risk of decline in the medium term [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: Ethylene glycol fluctuated overnight. The supply is affected by the Middle - East conflict, and the industry supply - demand is slightly weakening. There are plans for large - scale plant maintenance, which may support the price [30]. Agricultural Products - Grains & Oilseeds - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: The Israel - Iran conflict affects oil prices and soybean meal. The US soybean good - rate is slightly lower than expected, and weather is favorable for growth. Pay attention to weather changes and oil market fluctuations [35]. - Vegetable Oils: Vegetable oil prices are rising, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips due to the development of biodiesel [36]. - Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil: The impact of external factors is not fully digested. The risk of dry weather in North America adds a weather premium. The short - term strategy changes from bullish to neutral [37]. - Corn: Dalian corn futures were weak overnight. The substitution of wheat for corn exists, and inventory is going through destocking. The futures are expected to oscillate [39]. - Other Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The futures price rebounded slightly, and the policy aims to stabilize prices. However, there is still pressure on pig supply in the later stage [40]. - Eggs: The egg futures price rebounded, and the spot price is stable. There is short - term support from demand, but it is considered a rebound rather than a reversal [41]. - Cotton: US cotton prices oscillated. The US cotton good - rate decreased, and the planting rate increased. Domestic cotton trading is average, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [42]. - Sugar: Overnight, ICE sugar oscillated. Brazilian production data is bearish. Domestic sugar imports are low, and inventory pressure is light. The price is expected to oscillate [43]. - Apples: The futures price oscillated. Market demand is declining, and the focus is on the new - season production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Wood: The futures price oscillated. The import volume of radiata pine is expected to be low in June, and demand is relatively good in the off - season. Inventory is going through destocking, but the price is weak [45]. - Paper Pulp: The paper - pulp futures price rose slightly. Port inventory is high, and demand is weak. The price is low, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on significant pullbacks [46]. Financials - Stock Indices: A - shares oscillated narrowly. The Fed maintained interest rates, and the geopolitical situation is tense. Pay attention to investment opportunities in the science and technology growth sector and the development of macro - factors [47]. - Treasury Bonds: The treasury - bond market oscillated, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. The consumer goods trade - in policy is ongoing, and the bond market is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend [48].
综合晨报-20250619
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-06-19 02:04