Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6]. - The outlook for each variety is as follows: - Steel: Oscillation [7] - Iron ore: Oscillation [7] - Scrap steel: Oscillation [8] - Coke: Oscillation [8] - Coking coal: Oscillation [11] - Glass: Oscillation [12] - Soda ash: Oscillation [12] - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [14] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [15] Core Viewpoints - The black building materials market is affected by external disturbances and is in an off - season. The prices of each variety are oscillating. The overall demand is weak, and there is a downward pressure, but the upward driving force is also insufficient [1][2]. - After the positive factors of coking coal are digested, there is no new driving force for the time being. The steel inventory is in a destocking state, and the iron ore supply and demand are in a tight balance. However, the domestic construction and manufacturing industries are in the off - season, and there is not much demand increase. The iron ore shipment volume has increased significantly, and the supply of coking coal and coke has not improved significantly, so the downward pressure is relatively large [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mines start to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter. The shipment volume is expected to increase seasonally and may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited [2][7]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production have slightly decreased, but it is expected to remain high in the short term [2][7]. - Inventory: Last week, the arrival volume decreased, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, the arrival volume will remain high, and there is an expectation of a small - scale phased inventory accumulation, but the amplitude is expected to be limited [2][7]. - Outlook: The short - term fundamentals are seasonally weakening but not exceeding expectations. The overall contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected that there is little possibility of a significant decline. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. 2. Carbon Element - Supply: Recently, the number of coal mines shut down due to inventory pressure and environmental inspections has increased, and the coking coal production has declined. However, the overall market supply is not tight, and attention should be paid to the contraction amplitude of the supply side in the future [3]. - Demand: The coke production has declined from a high level. Under the pressure of inventory reduction and losses, the coke enterprises' production is expected to further decline [3]. - Inventory: During the price - cut cycle, the coke enterprises' enthusiasm for replenishing raw material inventory is not high. The upstream coking coal inventory is still at a high level in recent years, and the inventory structure problem has not been significantly improved [3]. - Outlook: The contraction amplitude of the supply side is limited, the downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, and the upstream coking coal inventory reduction pressure remains. The short - term price lacks a driving force for a trending increase [3]. 3. Alloys Silicomanganese - Cost: In the manganese ore market, some ore varieties have a shortage of circulating resources. Traders are not willing to sell at low prices, and the downstream procurement bargaining is more difficult [14]. - Supply: Some factories in Guizhou have few operating enterprises; some factories in Yunnan have plans to resume production; some factories in Guangxi are expected to shut down for maintenance; there are still situations of resuming production and new production capacity in the north. The production is expected to increase [14]. - Demand: The black market is in the off - season, the market sentiment is still cautious, and the downstream has a strong mentality of pressing prices. The steel tender price is around 5600 yuan/ton, in line with market expectations [14]. - Outlook: The silicomanganese production is expected to increase, the terminal steel demand is gradually entering the off - season, the supply and demand of silicomanganese tend to be loose, and the manganese ore market sentiment has improved. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [14]. Ferrosilicon - Cost: The semi - coke market is stable [15]. - Supply: The manufacturers' profits are not good, the overall supply level is still at a low position, and the manufacturers are not willing to sell at low prices [15]. - Demand: Affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average. The terminal steel is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream has a strong willingness to reduce inventory. The metal magnesium market demand is weak, and the price is rising weakly [15]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both weak, but individual manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production. The supply - demand gap tends to be filled, and the cost may still have a drag. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [15]. 4. Glass - Demand: The demand in the off - season is declining, the deep - processing demand is still weakening month - on - month, and the off - season pressure still exists. The spot price has declined, and the production and sales are still weak [6]. - Supply: Recently, one production line is planned to be shut down for cold repair due to the expiration of the furnace age, and there are still five production lines waiting to produce glass. The supply - side pressure still exists [6]. - Inventory: The upstream inventory is slightly reduced, and the mid - stream inventory continues to decline, with repeated mood swings [6]. - Outlook: Pay attention to the price - cut amplitude of Hubei manufacturers. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. 5. Soda Ash - Supply: The pattern of oversupply has not changed, the maintenance is gradually resuming, and the supply pressure still exists [6]. - Demand: The heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. There are still some ignition production lines that have not produced glass, the daily melting of float glass is expected to increase, but the daily melting growth of photovoltaic glass may not be sustainable [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, the price center will still decline [6].
建材策略:外部扰动持续,??价格震荡运
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-19 02:27