外汇期货热点报告：美联储偏向鹰派，美元短期走强

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is bullish [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The June interest - rate meeting of the Federal Reserve was hawkish. Despite the rising stagflation pressure in the US economy, due to high concern about inflation, the Fed chose to continue monitoring, and the forward interest - rate guidance tended to suppress inflation expectations. Therefore, the US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [1][18][19] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. FOMC June Interest - Rate Meeting - The Fed maintained the interest - rate level as expected, but the number of expected future interest - rate cuts decreased, weakening market risk appetite and causing a short - term rebound in the US dollar index [1][7] - The description of the economy indicated that economic activity continued to expand, and the unemployment rate remained low, but the change from "stable" to "maintained" in the description of the unemployment rate suggested a weakening labor market [1][7] - The Fed's view on the long - term economy showed less uncertainty, and the pressure of further expanding stagflation was reduced, with a marginal increase in optimism about the short - term economic trend [1][7] - Economic forecasts showed that the GDP growth rate in 2024 was expected to be only 1.4%, and the inflation rate would reach 3%. Compared with the March forecast, the GDP growth rate was lowered by 0.3 percentage points, and the PCE and core PCE were both raised by 0.3 percentage points, indicating rising short - term stagflation pressure [9] - The interest - rate dot plot showed that the number of expected interest - rate cuts in 2025 remained unchanged, but only one cut was expected in 2026 and 2027. The number of Fed officials who thought no cuts were needed increased to 7, indicating a hawkish stance [9] - Powell's press conference was hawkish. The Fed was highly concerned about inflation and optimistic about the US economic fundamentals [18] 2. Investment Advice - The US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [2][19]