广金期货策略早餐-20250619

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For copper, the global supply - demand pattern remains tight due to pre - emptive US demand. The opening of the domestic refined copper export window since June supports copper prices before US tariffs are imposed, but weak tariff implementation may reduce copper trade demand [1][2][3]. - For protein粕, the RVO obligation of the US EPA is unexpectedly positive, and international vegetable oils are reasonably priced high in the short term. Soybean prices are mainly oscillating, and the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 is considered [4][5][6]. - For petroleum asphalt, the asphalt futures price maintains a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term due to crude oil cost support. In the long run, the asphalt fundamentals are weak in summer, and the asphalt cracking spread continues to weaken [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Copper - Intraday View: 78200 - 79200 [1] - Medium - term View: 60000 - 90000 [1] - Reference Strategy: Adopt an oscillating operation approach [1] - Core Logic: - Macro: The US Congressional Budget Office indicates that the "big and beautiful" legal system will increase the fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion [1]. - Supply: In May 2025, China imported 2.4 million tons of copper ore concentrates, a 6.6% year - on - year increase; from January to May, the cumulative import was 12.41 million tons, a 7.4% year - on - year increase. The supply of recycled copper raw materials is tightening. The Kakula copper mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has复产, but the 2025 production plan is reduced. The Adani copper smelter in India has a risk of canceling the long - term supply contract [1]. - Demand: In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 23.6% year - on - year; imports decreased by 16.6% year - on - year. The overall market for refined copper rods is weak, and the new orders for enameled wire are decreasing. The US may impose a 25% tariff on imported copper [2]. - Inventory: On June 18, LME copper inventory decreased by 200 tons to 107,400 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 7,527 tons to 47,000 tons, and international copper warehouse receipts decreased by 582 tons to 4,162 tons [2]. Livestock, Poultry and Soft Commodities Sector - Protein粕 - Intraday View: Soybean meal 2509 continues to oscillate between [3000, 3100] [4] - Medium - term View: Soybean meal 2509 builds a bottom in the range of [2900, 3100] [4] - Reference Strategy: Sell out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400 [4] - Core Logic: - Weather and Market Impact: In late June, soybean meal 2509 follows US soybeans into an oscillating market due to uncertain weather in US and Canadian rapeseed production areas. The Middle East geopolitical conflict and the US EPA's RVO proposal have boosted soybean oil prices [4]. - International Soybean Situation: The good condition of US soybeans is negative for far - month contracts, but the strength of vegetable oils drives up US soybean prices, resulting in a mixed situation for soybean meal. The expected soybean arrivals in June, July, and August are 12 million tons, 9.5 million tons, and 8.5 million tons respectively [5]. - Rapeseed Situation: Canadian rapeseed planting is faster than usual, which is negative for far - month contracts. ICE rapeseed follows the rise of US soybean oil. The estimated global rapeseed production in the 25/26 year is 89.77 million tons [5]. Energy and Chemicals Sector - Petroleum Asphalt - Intraday View: High - level oscillation [7] - Medium - term View: Under pressure [7] - Reference Strategy: Hold the strategy of shorting asphalt and going long on high - sulfur fuel oil spread [7] - Core Logic: - Supply: This week, the losses of local refineries in asphalt production have deepened, and the domestic asphalt refinery operating rate has decreased. As of June 17, the weekly asphalt production was 537,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons [7]. - Demand: In the north, demand is restricted by high prices, and trading has declined slightly; in the south, demand is weak due to rainfall. The operating rate of waterproofing membrane enterprises is low. Asphalt refinery inventory has decreased, while social inventory is relatively stable [8]. - Cost: Geopolitical premiums support high oil prices in the short term. In the long run, oil prices will decline from high levels due to supply growth and weakening demand [8].