中辉有色观点-20250619

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market is influenced by factors such as Fed's stance, US economic data, and geopolitical uncertainties. Gold is in a long - term bullish trend, while short - term fluctuations are affected by geopolitical variables. Silver shows strong rebounds but requires careful position control [5][6]. - In the base metals market, copper is expected to be bullish in the long - term due to global copper supply shortages and strategic importance, but short - term risks need to be watched. Zinc has a long - term supply - increase and demand - weak situation, while short - term it has limited downside due to cost support. Aluminum shows short - term strength in the near - month but faces supply - related pressure. Nickel is under pressure due to supply and downstream inventory issues [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply surplus persists, and prices are expected to decline due to increasing inventory expectations [16]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Gold and Silver - Market Performance: Gold slightly declined as geopolitical situations did not expand. Silver showed strong rebounds. SHFE gold was at 785.42, up 0.04% from the previous value, and SHFE silver was at 9045, up 2.04% [4]. - Basic Logic: The Fed kept rates unchanged, US economic data weakened, and there were geopolitical uncertainties. In the long - term, the trend of reducing dollar dependence and fiscal - monetary easing remains, supporting the long - term bullish view of gold [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: For gold, consider long - term positions when the opportunity arises, with short - term attention on the 800 resistance. For silver, pay attention to recent high resistance and control positions [6]. Copper - Market Performance: Shanghai copper showed narrow - range fluctuations. The main contract of SHFE copper closed at 78610 yuan/ton, down 0.01% [7]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas copper ore supply is tight, and there are concerns about overseas soft - squeeze risks. The consumption off - season has led to downstream hesitation, but green copper demand has offset some traditional demand shortages [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short - term long positions cautiously and take partial profits at high prices. Be optimistic about copper in the long - term. SHFE copper should be monitored in the range of [78000, 79500], and LME copper in the range of [9650, 9750] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - Market Performance: Zinc rebounded under pressure and oscillated around the upper integer level. The main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 21955 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [9]. - Industrial Logic: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Downstream demand has weakened, and the start - up rate of zinc - related enterprises has declined [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Temporarily observe in the short - term. In the long - term, take short positions on rallies. SHFE zinc should be monitored in the range of [21800, 22200], and LME zinc in the range of [2650, 2750] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Market Performance: Aluminum prices were strong in the near - month, and alumina showed a slight stabilization trend. The main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 20680 yuan/ton, up 1.08% [11]. - Industrial Logic: In June, the reduction in domestic aluminum ingot casting led to inventory depletion. The overseas bauxite supply is high, and the alumina supply surplus continues [12]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short positions on rallies for SHFE aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main contract should be monitored in the range of [20000 - 20800]. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [12]. Nickel - Market Performance: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel showed a weak trend. The main contract of SHFE nickel closed at 118480 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [13]. - Industrial Logic: The increase in nickel ore shipments from the Philippines and the decline in Indonesian nickel ore prices have weakened cost support. Stainless steel inventory pressure has resurfaced as the terminal enters the off - season [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short positions on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption. The main contract of nickel should be monitored in the range of [117000 - 122000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2509 slightly reduced positions and rose, with an intraday high - then - low movement [15]. - Industrial Logic: The supply surplus of lithium carbonate persists. During the off - season of terminal demand, production has recovered to a high level, and inventory is expected to increase, driving prices down [16]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rallies in the range of [59000 - 61000] [16].