2025年5月经济数据点评：生产稳健，内需向好

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment in May 2025 shows a steady improvement, with manufacturing investment growing by 8.5% and infrastructure investment at 5.6%, effectively offsetting a decline in real estate investment of -10.7%[5] - The industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year from January to May 2025, driven by strong performance in the equipment manufacturing sector, which contributed over 50% to industrial production[5][8] Inflation and Price Dynamics - The current economic context is characterized by low inflation, with a focus on driving up core CPI as a key to reversing low prices; the core CPI recovery is crucial for internal demand restoration[5][8] - PPI pressures are monitored through domestic demand and supply dimensions, particularly focusing on domestic demand-driven commodity prices and the "copper-gold ratio" for industrial demand[5][8] Structural Resilience - The dual counteracting forces of "manufacturing nation" and "de-leveraging in real estate" continue to enhance economic resilience, with manufacturing and export strength effectively mitigating the negative impacts of real estate and consumption[5][8] - The economic growth figures may reflect a divergence from microeconomic fundamentals, suggesting a need for patience and confidence in the Chinese economy's recovery[5][8] Future Outlook - The economy is entering a "dragon in the field" phase, with signs of a turning point in pessimistic narratives; there is an optimistic outlook for RMB assets as external pressures gradually ease[5][8] - The macro policy in 2025 is expected to dynamically calibrate and gradually strengthen, indicating a shift in market expectations[5][8] Risks - Potential risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations, unexpected downturns in the real estate sector, and delays in the rollout of real estate stimulus measures[5]