2025年6月FOMC会议点评：美联储全年降息或不及2次

Monetary Policy Insights - The FOMC meeting on June 19, 2025, maintained the policy interest rate at [4.25, 4.5]% and removed the judgment regarding higher unemployment and inflation risks[1] - The dot plot indicates a more hawkish distribution, with 7 members expecting no rate cuts this year, compared to 4 in March[1] - The median projection for the federal funds rate for 2025 remains unchanged, despite higher inflation and unemployment forecasts[1] Economic Forecast Adjustments - The GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 was revised down from 1.7% to 1.4%, while the unemployment rate was adjusted up from 4.4% to 4.5%[1] - PCE inflation expectations for Q4 2025 increased from 2.7% to 3.0%, and core PCE inflation from 2.8% to 3.1%[1] - The economic outlook suggests a more stagflationary environment, with increased uncertainty around growth and inflation[1] Future Rate Cut Expectations - The market has adjusted the probability of a rate cut in September 2025 to 70.7%, with an expected cumulative cut of 1.9 times (47.5 basis points) by the end of the year[1] - The expectation is that the total number of rate cuts this year may not exceed 2, primarily due to concerns over inflation risks[1] - The potential for a new Federal Reserve chair in November may influence future monetary policy expectations[1] Risk Factors - Risks include the potential for significant delays in the implementation of Trump's policies and the possibility of a liquidity crisis if high interest rates are maintained for too long[1] - The pace of inflation decline may not meet expectations, adding to economic uncertainty[1]