6月美联储议息会议传递的信号：降息“方寸”之争，未来重点关注缩表调整

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve remains on hold, maintaining the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50%[1] - The dot plot indicates expectations for 2 rate cuts this year, but there is significant division among officials regarding the timing[3] - Economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 1.7% to 1.4%, reflecting uncertainties from tariff impacts[3] Group 2: Balance Sheet and Regulatory Adjustments - The current pace of balance sheet reduction is $50 billion for Treasury securities and $350 billion for MBS[2] - The Treasury's replenishment of the TGA account in Q3 may be a key observation window for the Fed to halt balance sheet reduction[7] - Adjustments to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) are anticipated, which could enhance banks' capacity to hold U.S. Treasuries[8] Group 3: Market Conditions and Risks - U.S. equity and bond market liquidity is at historical lows, with foreign investors facing potential redemption pressures[6] - The unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2025 is adjusted to 4.5%, up from 4.4%[3] - The year-end PCE inflation forecast has been raised to 3.0%, up from 2.7%, primarily due to tariff impacts[3]