农产品日报：供应前景乐观，糖价依旧承压-20250619

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][4][6] Core Views - The cotton market is affected by macro - environment uncertainties, international supply - demand changes, and domestic supply - demand trends. Although there are short - term price fluctuations, the overall situation lacks strong driving forces on both the supply and demand sides [1][2] - The sugar market is facing a situation where the global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus in the 25/26 season. Brazilian production and domestic import rhythm are the key factors affecting the market [3][4] - The pulp market has a supply - side with weak cost support and a demand - side with poor downstream performance. The market is expected to continue low - level oscillations [5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,540 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,756 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,857 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1] - Import: In May 2025, China's cotton import volume was 40,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (33.9%) from the previous month and 220,000 tons (86.3%) from the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Macro: Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations boosted domestic cotton prices, but uncertainties remain [2] - International: The June USDA supply - demand report reduced the global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, with a decline in ending stocks. International cotton prices are expected to oscillate [2] - Domestic: Commercial cotton inventories are accelerating de - stocking, but new - year planting area is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term due to policy uncertainties and supply - demand situations [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,679 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.21%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,040 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,865 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Import: In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 333,100 tons year - on - year. From January to May, the import volume was 633,200 tons, a decrease of 641,200 tons (50.31%) [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Although energy prices support international sugar prices, the expected increase in production in the 25/26 season in Brazil and other countries puts downward pressure on prices [4] - Zhengzhou sugar: Domestic sales data support spot prices, but with the weakening of raw sugar, import profits appear, increasing supply pressure [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Zhengzhou sugar mainly follows the trend of raw sugar, with a long - term weakening trend [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract yesterday was 5,240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.38%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - Market: The price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable, with weak downstream demand [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Arauco's long - term contract price has been continuously reduced, and the supply is expected to remain loose [6] - Demand: European demand is weak, and domestic downstream demand is in the off - season, with poor terminal demand expectations [6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The market is expected to continue low - level oscillations due to weak demand and lack of positive drivers [6]