Group 1: Research Views Copper - Overnight LME copper fluctuated weakly, down 0.2% to $9,650.5/ton; SHFE copper rose 0.01% to 78,610 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import maintained a large loss. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% in June, the fourth time this year. Fed Chair Powell said the US economy is stable, tariffs may push up prices, and inflation may rise in the coming months. Inventory: LME down 200 tons to 107,350 tons; Comex up 1,400 tons to 181,400 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts down 7,527 tons to 47,014 tons; BC copper warehouse receipts down 582 tons to 4,162 tons. Demand slowed in the off - season. The escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict may increase concerns about the global economy. The market is in a short - term shock pattern, with a focus on the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [1]. Aluminum - Alumina fluctuated strongly. AO2509 closed at 2,910 yuan/ton, up 0.41%, with an open interest increase of 4,326 lots to 304,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum also fluctuated strongly. AL2507 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton, up 0.05%, with an open interest decrease of 11,246 lots to 187,000 lots. The aluminum alloy also showed a strong trend. AD2511 closed at 19,810 yuan/ton, up 0.76%, with an open interest increase of 133 lots to 9,257 lots. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3,205 yuan/ton. The aluminum ingot spot premium was 190 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina plants continued to resume production. The electrolytic aluminum demand structure was further differentiated. The rod - ingot inventory trends were different, and the low domestic and foreign warehouse receipts supported the market. Pay attention to the opportunity of the AD - AL spread convergence [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight LME nickel rose 1.07% to $15,095/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.6% to 119,050 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 816 tons to 204,120 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons to 22,139 tons. The LME 0 - 3 months premium remained negative, and the imported nickel premium rose 150 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton. Indonesia plans to sanction IMIP for environmental violations. The nickel ore price remained strong. Stainless steel production was cut in China and Indonesia, but the weekly inventory was still increasing. In the short - term, focus on nickel ore premium and primary nickel inventory; in the medium - term, the fundamentals may be bearish due to demand constraints [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Copper - On June 18, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 78,810 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan from the previous day, and the premium dropped 50 yuan. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 72,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. LME inventory decreased by 200 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 7,527 tons. The social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 0.3 million tons [4]. Aluminum - On June 18, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the Nanhai price was 20,760 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan. The spot premium was 190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. LME inventory decreased by 2,100 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,774 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, and the alumina inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons [5]. Nickel - On June 18, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate remained unchanged at 120,925 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 816 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons. The weekly nickel inventory increased by 77 tons, and the stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [5]. Zinc - On June 18, 2025, the main contract settlement price was 21,995 yuan/ton, up 0.5%. The SMM 0 spot price was 22,200 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan. The domestic spot premium average was 240 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The上期所 inventory increased by 793 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 625 tons [6]. Tin - On June 18, 2025, the main contract settlement price was 263,440 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The LmeS3 price was $27,540/ton, down 2.1%. The SMM spot price was 264,300 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The上期所 inventory decreased by 265 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 20 tons [6]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Spot Premium - The report presents spot premium charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][10] 3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread - Charts show the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21] 3.3 LME Inventory - LME inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [23][25][27] 3.4 SHFE Inventory - SHFE inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are presented [30][32][34] 3.5 Social Inventory - Social inventory charts for copper (including bonded area), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 are shown [36][38][40] 3.6 Smelting Profit - Charts display the copper concentrate index, copper rough processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47] Group 4: Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of experience; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel [50][51]
光大期货有色商品日报（2025年6月19日）-20250619
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-06-19 05:11