新能源及有色金属日报：美联储按兵不动，铜价维持震荡格局-20250619

Group 1: Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Suspended [5] - Option: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [5] Group 2: Core View - This week, the domestic long - term contract price is still under negotiation, and the spot TC price remains low. The orders of downstream refined copper rod enterprises continue to decline, and there is great uncertainty in future demand. However, due to complex geopolitical factors and continuous pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, the quasi - precious metal attribute of copper may benefit. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 18, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,600 yuan/ton and closed at 78,860 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session of the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,640 yuan/ton and closed at 78,610 yuan/ton, down 0.01% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - In the early morning, holders quoted JCC, Lufang, Xiangguang at a premium of 200 - 230 yuan/ton. After traders bought JCC at a low - premium of 170 yuan/ton, the mainstream transaction price weakened. In Changzhou, iron - peak, Honglu, Yuguang copper were traded at a premium of 120 - 140 yuan/ton. Russian copper was sold at low prices, with transactions from par to a premium of 40 yuan/ton. Holders rushed to sell due to concerns about subsequent warehouse receipts, and the spot premium is expected to decline further [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: The Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time in June. The dot - plot shows two rate cuts this year, but the number of officials who expect no rate cuts this year has risen to 7, and the expected rate cuts next year have been reduced to 1. Powell emphasized uncertainty and said the current economic situation requires waiting. He also expects tariff - driven inflation to rise in the coming months. Trump called for a 200 - BP rate cut and said 250 - BP would be better. In China, the 2025 Lujiazui Forum opened, and the central bank announced eight major financial opening - up measures [3] - Mine End: Anglo Asian aims to transform into a medium - sized copper - based producer by 2029. Besides the Gilar mine, it plans to put three other mines (Zafar, Xarxar, and Garadag) into production. In 2024, its operations were restricted by environmental closures but resumed at the end of the year, with a total gold - equivalent output of 16,760 ounces [3] - Smelting and Import: In April 2025, China's scrap copper (copper waste and scrap) imports were 204,747.956 tons, up 7.92% month - on - month and down 9.43% year - on - year. Japan was the largest supplier, with imports of 32,677.883 tons, up 20.95% month - on - month and 13.72% year - on - year. Thailand was the second - largest supplier, with imports of 25,049.854 tons, up 27.15% month - on - month and 61.91% year - on - year [4] - Consumption: Last week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. Due to the end of the month, downstream consumption had limited room for improvement. However, due to some processing enterprises' rush to export, market demand was relatively stable. Downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases on dips [4] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 200 tons to 107,350 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 7,527 tons to 47,014 tons. On June 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 147,700 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from the previous week [4] Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [5] - Arbitrage: Suspended [5] - Option: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [5] Data Table - Various copper - related data are presented in tables and figures, including TC prices, SMM1 copper premium and discount quotes, inventory, warehouse receipts, and price differences [6][27][28]