聚烯烃日报：中东局势升级，成本端带动聚烯烃走强-20250619

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there is no recommendation for the inter - period strategy [3] Core View - The escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a strong trend in crude oil prices, driving up polyolefins from the cost side. Propane prices are also strong, and the production profit of PDH - made PP remains in the red. The previously shut - down PE plants have resumed operation, and some plants are under planned maintenance, with overall high - level operation. The shut - down PP plants have returned, putting great pressure on the supply side. The overall inventory level of upstream has a small reduction. In the seasonal consumption off - season, downstream demand remains weak, mainly with terminal rigid - demand procurement. The agricultural film operation has bottomed out and rebounded but is still at a low level, and demand cannot drive the market [2] Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7418 yuan/ton (+101), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7214 yuan/ton (+89). The LL North China spot price is 7370 yuan/ton (+60), the LL East China spot price is 7420 yuan/ton (+70), and the PP East China spot price is 7250 yuan/ton (+60). The LL North China basis is - 48 yuan/ton (-41), the LL East China basis is 2 yuan/ton (-31), and the PP East China basis is 36 yuan/ton (-29) [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 79.2% (+1.8%), and the PP operating rate is 78.6% (+1.6%). The PE oil - based production profit is - 318.7 yuan/ton (-251.0), the PP oil - based production profit is - 718.7 yuan/ton (-251.0), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 33.7 yuan/ton (-40.2) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given content IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 26.6 yuan/ton (-3.6), the PP import profit is - 316.3 yuan/ton (+6.4), and the PP export profit is 2.2 US dollars/ton (-0.8) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.4% (-0.5%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.4% (-0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.4% (-0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+0.0%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given content