华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250619

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with low inventory continuing and the price in a high - level game during the off - season [1][4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50% unchanged, and it may cut interest rates twice this year according to the dot - plot. Aluminum prices showed a strong and volatile trend yesterday [2] - In June, the price of bauxite fluctuated, and the overall cost of alumina didn't change much. Due to profit recovery, some previously shut - down alumina production capacity resumed, and new production capacity was released, leading to an increase in the operating capacity of alumina. There is an expectation of a decline in the prices of alumina and auxiliary materials, weakening the cost support for electrolytic aluminum [3] - In June, the off - season atmosphere in the downstream aluminum processing industry is strong. The weekly开工 rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% compared with the previous week, with different performances in each segment [3] - On June 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 458,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday. The inventory reduction slowed down in mid - June. Affected by regional price differences and transfers, the inventory in Shanghai, Wuxi in East China and Gongyi in the Central Plains increased significantly, while that in Foshan, South China decreased greatly, and other regions remained stable. The overall low casting volume in the short term supports the inventory reduction trend, but the increase in shipments from the northwest and regional transfers due to price differences have put pressure on East China and the Central Plains, and the tight supply situation may be alleviated [3] - Overseas macro instability still exists. The current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of molten aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The spot of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas may face a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]