华宝期货晨报煤焦-20250619

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term market sentiment has warmed up, and coal prices have stopped falling. However, fundamentally, both coal and coke supply and demand have declined slightly at high levels, inventory pressure remains high, and price rebounds are still weak [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs - Market Logic: Yesterday, coal and coke prices oscillated overall, with a slight decline in the night session, and the upward momentum was still insufficient. On the spot side, after the third round of price cuts for coke in the production areas, the prices temporarily stabilized, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton from mid - May to now, and there are still expectations of further price cuts. Coking coal spot also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound. This week, some coal mines in Shanxi that were shut down due to safety reasons gradually resumed production, and production increased. The decline in spot coal prices narrowed this week, market transactions improved, and low - price resources got better, but coal mine inventories continued to increase. This week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 7.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 million tons. The overall profitability rate of steel mills has slightly narrowed recently, leading to a decline in开工, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines, and the fundamentals still lack the driving force for coal price rebounds [2]