贵金属数据日报-20250619

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the Israel - Iran conflict may support precious metal prices, but factors like potential trade improvement could suppress gold prices, so gold prices are expected to remain range - bound. Silver prices may continue to rise due to the conflict boosting inflation expectations and the improvement of commodity risk preferences, but the repair of the gold - silver ratio is relatively reasonable, and silver prices need to be cautious about the easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation [3]. - In the long - term, against the background of the trade war, the US economy faces a downward risk, the Fed may cut interest rates, and with global geopolitical uncertainties, great - power games, and the de - dollarization trend, central bank gold purchases continue, and the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. The strategy is to allocate more on dips [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Price Data - Precious Metal Prices: On June 18, 2025, compared with June 17, London gold spot decreased by 0.1%, London silver spot increased by 2.1%, COMEX gold decreased by 0.1%, COMEX silver increased by 2.1%, AU2508 remained unchanged, AG2508 increased by 0.0%, AU (T + D) remained unchanged, and AG (T + D) increased by 1.9% [3]. - Price Spreads and Ratios: The gold TD - SHFE active price spread changed by - 551.6%, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread changed by 99.1%, the gold internal - external price spread changed by 4.9%, the silver internal - external price spread changed by - 2.2%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio remained unchanged, the COMEX gold - silver ratio changed by - 9.7%, AU2512 - 2508 remained unchanged, and AG2512 - 2508 remained unchanged [3]. - Position Data: As of June 17, 2025, compared with June 16, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.27%, the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.95%, the COMEX gold non - commercial net long position decreased by 0.23%, the COMEX silver non - commercial long position increased by 3.92%, the COMEX silver non - commercial short position decreased by 12.58%, the COMEX silver non - commercial net long position increased by 0.43%, the COMEX silver non - commercial long - term position decreased by 0.40%, and the COMEX silver non - commercial short - term position increased by 9.68% [3]. - Inventory Data: On June 18, 2025, compared with June 17, SHFE gold inventory decreased by 0.05%, SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.15%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.03%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.19% [3]. - Other Market Data: On June 18, 2025, compared with June 17, the dollar/yuan central parity rate increased by 0.02%, the dollar index increased by 0.69%, the US 2 - year Treasury yield decreased by 0.76%, the US 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 1.57%, the VIX increased by 13.03%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.84%, and NYWEX crude oil increased by 3.16% [3]. Market News and Events - On June 17, local time, Israel's war - reduction affairs minister Ron Dermer said that Israel had destroyed Iran's uranium enrichment facilities and would continue to act. Trump claimed to have full control of Iran's airspace and warned Iran to "unconditionally surrender." On June 18, Khamenei said that Iran would not surrender, and any US strike would have irreversible consequences. Also, at least three Iranian military aircraft landed in Oman, and Oman is mediating the nuclear - agreement consultations between Iran and the US [3]. - In the US, the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending June 14 was 245,000, a slight decline, remaining near an 8 - month high. The number of continued jobless claims in the week ending June 7 was 1.945 million, higher than expected but with a slight decline from the previous value [3]. Market Trends - Short - term: Gold prices are expected to remain range - bound, and silver prices may continue to rise but need to be cautious about the easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation [3]. - Long - term: The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and the strategy is to allocate more on dips [3].