5月央行信贷收支表要点解读：非银存款高增背后：同业扩表与存款搬家

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a cautious optimism regarding retail risks, indicating that new regulations may still allow for adjustments [4] - The impact of debt reduction on credit may weaken, with funds continuing to be activated [4] - The current environment shows a significant increase in non-bank deposits, with major banks adding 2.6 trillion yuan in April and May [4] Summary by Sections Deposit Side - Major banks continue to see a significant increase in non-bank deposits, with a cumulative addition of 2.6 trillion yuan in April and May [4] - The report indicates a potential shift in deposits due to interest rate cuts, leading to a "migration effect" towards wealth management and other financial products [4][5] - There is a concern about the shortening of liability terms and reduced stability as banks prefer short-term deposits over long-term ones [5] Asset Side - Loan demand remains weak, with a shift from bill financing to short-term loans [6] - There is a notable increase in bond investments by small and medium-sized banks, suggesting a recovery in bond allocation demand if funding costs decrease [6] - The report highlights a potential preference shift towards credit bonds as the cost of interbank deposits decreases [7] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, expecting stable growth in revenue and net profit in 2025 [8] - It recommends stocks with stable dividends, including Citic Bank and Everbright Bank, while also suggesting cyclical stocks like Suzhou Bank and others [8]